000 AGXX40 KNHC 211939 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC... ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WINDS REMAIN STRONG. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1100 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED MAX WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE ELONGATED SFC LOW CENTERED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W. SFC OBSERVATIONS ADD CONFIDENCE IN DROPPING THE GALE AS REPORTS ARE MAINLY LESS THAN 30 KT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE E GULF AND SW N ATLC W OF 75W. SEAS REMAIN HIGH UP TO 18 FT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...AND TO 11 FT OVER THE N MIDDLE GULF...DUE TO THE CONTINUED FETCH AND DURATION. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE LOW WNW THROUGH FRI THEN TURN N-NW AND MOVE INLAND OVER LOUISIANA SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS DUE TO HIGH PRES OVER THE DELMARVA SHIFTING E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WEAKENING. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS...SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SFC TROUGHING OVER THIS AREA...BUT ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN ITS STRENGTH...TIMING...AND ORGANIZATION. NOGAPS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN FORMING A CLOSED LOW AND UKMET REMAINS WEAKEST. PREFER THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE STRONGER/FASTER GFS AND WEAKER/SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH YIELD A SLOW WWD MOVING TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT BEFORE THE TROUGH IS DRAWN NWD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC DRIFTS E AND WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... SFC OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A SWATH OF 15-20 KT E-SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND 10-15 KT FLOW OVER SW CARIB AND TROP N ATLC. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM LOW PRES OVER THE E GULF. ONLY FORECAST CONCERN INVOLVES FORMING TROUGH NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS...SEE ABOVE. OTHERWISE... LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES APPEAR ON TAP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.