000 AGXX40 KNHC 150730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 76W-77W. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO PINCH OFF A SURFACE LOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE 00Z GFS TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE 12Z RUN BY MON-TUE. THE NEWER RUN HOLDS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRAITS OF FL AT THAT TIME WHILE THE 12Z RUN HAD LIFTED THE LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY TUE EVE. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TREND IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GFS ACQUIRES STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF SUN/MON AND WRAPPING INTO THE DEEP LAYER LOW TUE. THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS AND SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE IN THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN BEST AGREEMENT...SLOWLY MOVING AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF MON/TUE. THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED FOR NOW. THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF. ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLC... THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE DEEP LAYER LOW AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM SEEN IN THE 12Z RUN AND NOW IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE IN FORECAST WATERS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AS THE HIGH PRES AS THE RIDGE OFF THE SW COAST IS SQUEEZED SE BY THE COLD FRONT PASSING OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUN. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME. CARIBBEAN... FORECAST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WHICH SUPPORT A MORE SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...UNLIKE THE GFS AND NOGAPS WHICH ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FL AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL RESPECTIVELY BY TUE MORN WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS SOUTHERLY THAN THE GFS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.