000 AGXX40 KNHC 111826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE W GULF ARE INDICATING WINDS TO 20 KT. AS A RESULT...WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE N GULF THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE GULF AT THE WESTERN TIP OF THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF...WHERE SEAS ARE LESS THAN 2 FT. THIS GENERAL PATTEN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK... UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD WITH STRENGTHENING E TO SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. BY LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE W GULF AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH THE 20-25 KT RANGE THU-SAT. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL ALSO OCCUR AROUND THE COAST OF YUCATAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DRIVEN BY VARIATIONS IN THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY OVER YUCATAN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 11/1000 UTC IS SHOWING NE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN....WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATING NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER WINDS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE S CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK UNTIL A SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MOVES EASTWARD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY SHIFT TO THE E CARIBBEAN BY LATE WEEK...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS SUBSIDING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 8 FT. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 11/0830 UTC SHOWS THE WELL-DEFINED 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N46W WITH AN ATTENDANT E-W SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE CONUS COAST. E TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WHERE SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 6-7 FT. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE FOUND AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W FROM 14N-20N. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AS ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY BEING EJECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL MAINTAIN THESE TRADE WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK. DEEP LAYER LIFT EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A LOW ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE CONUS AND PULL THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. COLD AIR ADVECTION W OF THE DEEPENING LOW WILL FORCE A SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS S OF 28N AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES A WEST-TO-EAST TRACK WITH LIMITED DIGGING SOUTHWARD. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC WILL INCREASE E TRADE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR THU INTO FRI...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT. BY LATE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLC WILL CUT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OFF FROM THE PRIMARY UPPER FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE N TROPICAL ATLC BY THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT FOLLOWING THE FRONT PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 55W-60W. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER COHEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.