000 AGXX40 KNHC 011909 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 309 PM EDT FRI MAY O1 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE AXIS OVER NE GULF AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO/TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE STRONG COUNTER-CURRENT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF FURTHER TO 10-15 KT LATE MON THROUGH WED. IN THE MEANTIME A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS BY LATE MON AND DISSIPATE IN THE SAME AREA BY LATE TUE. THE GFS...CMC AND NAM BRING THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE GULF WHEREAS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE FRONT OVER LAND. THE ECMWF REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...WHICH IS THE SOLUTION BEING FOLLOWED FOR NOW. IN ANY EVENT SE RETURN FLOW SWEEPS NWD ON WED AHEAD OF A STRONGER GREAT PLAINS SYSTEM WED. SW N ATLC... THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM LOCATED WELL N OF AREA NEAR 38N62W THAT HAS DRIVEN THE STRONG WINDS S OF 25N IN THE SW N ATLC THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E THEN NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT IN THE BAHAMAS AND S FL...WITH THE MEAN FLOW FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 20 KT OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO 19N59W CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AT THE MOMENT...BUT CONVECTION IS WEAK AND FOUND MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ALONG 67W/68W BY EARLY MON...AND DISSIPATE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A NEW HIGH PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO FORM WITHIN THE RIDGE NEAR 33N60W ON TUE AND WED AND COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES AS A RESULT OF THE REMNANT TROUGH IN THE BAHAMAS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN INCREASING ELY WINDS AND SEAS S OF 25N BUT E OF THE BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN 1106 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED AREAS OF 20 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND A BROAD AREA SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE SAME PASS ALSO SHOWED A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM THE NE TO SE ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AS A RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE. OVERALL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AS THE AREA IS SITUATED TO THE S OF THE WWD MOVING SFC TROUGH. ELY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE AND WED. ATLC... .NONE.. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.