000 AGXX40 KNHC 151945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA SW TO 25N94W AND S TO INLAND MEXICO AT 19N96W. TO ITS E...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC WSW ALONG 25N26N TO NEAR 90W. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT ARE SHOWING N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS MUCH LOWERS THAN YESTERDAY NOW IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1130 UTC THIS MORNING MISSED THE AREA W OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOWED WINDS BECOMING MORE NELY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF PORTION HAVE DIMINISHED TO N-NE 15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 12 UTC THIS CONCURS THAT WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOSTLY OVERCAST LAYERS OF MAINLY LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE WEAK ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONT WITH MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NW GULF. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MON MORNING AS A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. APPROACHES TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON HAVE NOTED...AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF GULF E OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONGER SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT OVER AND NEAR THE STRATS OF FL AS WELL AS S OF 23N BETWEEN 88W-92W. OBSERVED SEA STATE RANGES FROM 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF TO 2-3 FT IN THE NE PORTION. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 1200 THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH OBSERVED SEAS OVER THE GULF. 1200 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SWINGS ACROSS NE TEXAS AND THE SE U.S. MON THROUGH WED INDUCING THE STATIONARY TO BECOME A COLD FRONT THAT STAGGERS INTO NE GULF MON THROUGH TUE. IT BECOMES DIFFUSE FROM NEAR FL PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT AND TUE. HIGH PRES NUDGES SINTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE THROUGH WED BEFORE MOVING E OF GULF THU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SEAS REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT SUN THROUGH TUE OVER THE NE GULF...AND BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT EARLY WED THEN BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT LATE WED THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SEA IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING ATLC HIGH PRES TRADES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NE-E 20-25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKENING TO 15-20 KT TUE AND WED. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AREA...EXCEPT REMAINING IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISHING TO 6-9 FT LATE TUE...TO 5-7 FT WED AND 4-5 FT THU AND FRI. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE SEA BY THU WITH RANGES OF 4-5 FT IN THE EASTERN PORTION...AND 2-3 FT IN THE WESTERN PORTION AND 3-4 FT OVER REMAINDER OF THE SW PORTION. SW N ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD S ACROSS THE AREA IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND N TROPICAL N ATLC ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THESE WATERS...EXCEPT MORE SUSTAINED AT 20 KT OVER THE SE WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC AS SHOWN BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 050 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS AT BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY AT 10 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TONED DOWN MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE FROM THE 10-13 FT OF EARLIER RUNS TO 9-11 FT. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THESE WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE N OF ABOUT 16N THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FT MON AFTERNOON TO 6-7 FT TUE AND 4-7 FT WED EXCEPT 6-8 FT S OF 17N...AND TO 3-5 FT THU AND FRI. RIDGE FROM 29N65W TO CENTRAL FL AS DISPLAYED IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2240 UTC THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE SE TO ALONG 28N AS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA DROPS S AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE...AND FURTHER S FROM 31N65W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TUE AND FROM 28N65W TO NW BAHAMAS WHERE IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TO S FL BY LATE WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT...THEN SHIFTS TO E OF 70W BY LATE THU AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION. HIGH PRES BUILDING S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME N-NE 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGER WINDS OF NW-N 20-25 KT E OF 72W DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATE WED AND TO E 10 TO 15 KT THU. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILD UP TO 10 FT WED E OF 75W ...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT BY LATE THU AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO E OF ABOUT 70W AND THE FRONT BECOMES A DIFFUSE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC SUN THROUGH THU...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT AS STATED EARLIER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TUE. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT IN A N SWELL...EXCEPT 4-6 FT E OF THE SE BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NE AND E PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC ON THU WHERE A LINGERING N SWELL MAY STILL INDUCE SLOW SUBSIDING SEAS OF 7-10 FT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.