000 AGXX40 KNHC 231048 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST MON FEB 23 2009 ...CORRECTED FOR WARNINGS... MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED ON THE 0042 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS IN THE FAR SW GULF...BUT THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON BRINGING THE WINDS DOWN RAPIDLY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF UNDER AN INCREASINGLY MORE ZONAL MID LATITUDE PATTERN. NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE 20 TO 25 KT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON MORNING WITH THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHTER BY EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WED. BY THU/FRI...THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE MORE LATITUDINAL...CENTERED NEAR 29N. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS WANES BY WED/THU AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WHILE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE-FRI...NO COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE GULF. CARIBBEAN... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN HAVE BROUGHT WINDS TO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N E OF 83W ACCORDING TO THE 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD MIGRATION AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GULF HAS ENCOUNTERED THIS RIDGE....WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 2304 UTC SHOWED WINDS HAD SUBSIDED BELOW GALE FORCE. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE ASCAT PASS AT 0202 UTC FAILED TO BRING WINDS TO THE 30 TO 34 KT RANGE AND SHIP OBSERVATION A8JR6...IN THE HEART OF THE WARNING AREA...IS ONLY REPORTING 25 KT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA HAS WEAKENED TO 1009 MB. THE GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE GULF AND MEETS UP WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF PASSES OFF THE EAST COAST TUE-THU. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT EDGES EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH GENERALLY TO AROUND 15 KT E OF 80W TUE-FRI. ATLC... THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORCING THE LONG-WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NW EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WATERS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ZONE INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS S OF 25N ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT E OF 65W. WINDS NORTH OF THE NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING OFF THE N FL COAST ARE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE 0206 UTC ASCAT PASS WHILE WINDS NEAR THE LEAD BOUNDARY AS CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER. THE NEW FRONT WILL ALSO LOSE MUCH OF ITS PUNCH OVER FORECAST WATERS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND IS FORCED N OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL EAT INTO THE SURFACE RIDGING A BIT MORE THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...ALLOWING TRADES TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLC S OF 20N TUE-THU. AT THIS TIME...TRADES ARE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA S OF 20N. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. 000 AGXX40 KNHC 231048 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST MON FEB 23 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED ON THE 0042 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS IN THE FAR SW GULF...BUT THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON BRINGING THE WINDS DOWN RAPIDLY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF UNDER AN INCREASINGLY MORE ZONAL MID LATITUDE PATTERN. NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE 20 TO 25 KT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON MORNING WITH THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHTER BY EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WED. BY THU/FRI...THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE MORE LATITUDINAL...CENTERED NEAR 29N. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS WANES BY WED/THU AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WHILE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE-FRI...NO COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE GULF. CARIBBEAN... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN HAVE BROUGHT WINDS TO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N E OF 83W ACCORDING TO THE 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD MIGRATION AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GULF HAS ENCOUNTERED THIS RIDGE....WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 2304 UTC SHOWED WINDS HAD SUBSIDED BELOW GALE FORCE. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE ASCAT PASS AT 0202 UTC FAILED TO BRING WINDS TO THE 30 TO 34 KT RANGE AND SHIP OBSERVATION A8JR6...IN THE HEART OF THE WARNING AREA...IS ONLY REPORTING 25 KT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA HAS WEAKENED TO 1009 MB. THE GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE GULF AND MEETS UP WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF PASSES OFF THE EAST COAST TUE-THU. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT EDGES EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH GENERALLY TO AROUND 15 KT E OF 80W TUE-FRI. ATLC... THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORCING THE LONG-WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NW EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WATERS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ZONE INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS S OF 25N ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT E OF 65W. WINDS NORTH OF THE NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING OFF THE N FL COAST ARE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE 0206 UTC ASCAT PASS WHILE WINDS NEAR THE LEAD BOUNDARY AS CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER. THE NEW FRONT WILL ALSO LOSE MUCH OF ITS PUNCH OVER FORECAST WATERS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND IS FORCED N OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL EAT INTO THE SURFACE RIDGING A BIT MORE THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...ALLOWING TRADES TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLC S OF 20N TUE-THU. AT THIS TIME...TRADES ARE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA S OF 20N. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.