000 AGXX40 KNHC 220718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE GALE WARNING FORECAST TO BEGIN AT 1200 UTC APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET AS THE 0600 UTC BUOY REPORTS AND 0406 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOW WINDS ARE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE NW GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NE MEXICAN COAST. THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0106 UTC SUGGESTED WINDS COULD BE AT GALE FORCE...BUT THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE RAIN CONTAMINATION IN THIS REGION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. IN THIS CASE...THE ASCAT AND OBSERVATIONS SEEM MORE RELIABLE. THE 35 KM GFS KEEPS THE GALE GOING ALL DAY TODAY AND SUBSIDING BELOW GALE FORCE BY MIDNIGHT WHILE THE 20 KM NAM KEEPS THE GALE IN THE SW GULF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LYING FROM FL BAY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO CANCUN AND SOUTH OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 0000 UTC MON. NORTHERLY FLOW TO 25 KT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHTER MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE-THU. THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE-THU...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO KICK UP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS WANES BY WED/THU AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. CARIBBEAN... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN HAVE BROUGHT WINDS TO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N E OF 83W ACCORDING TO THE 0222 UTC ASCAT PASS. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 2330 UTC SHOWED WINDS HAD SUBSIDED SLIGHTLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HERE INTO MON. BY SUN NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BEGIN AN EASTWARD MIGRATION AS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GULF ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN EVENING INTO MON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE GULF AND MEETS UP WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS. AS THE TROUGHING EDGES EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH GENERALLY TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE E OF 80W TUE-THU. ATLC... THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORCING THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE N EDGE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE IS LIFTING THE SW EDGE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 31N54W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHWARD WHILE THE LEADING EDGE CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA. WINDS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE PICKED UP TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE 0224 UTC ASCAT PASS. MEANWHILE...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF 20N. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE NE FL COAST LATER TODAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT NEAR THE FRONT. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL ALSO LOSE MUCH OF ITS PUNCH OVER FORECAST WATERS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND IS FORCED N OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL EAT INTO THE SURFACE RIDGING A BIT MORE THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...ALLOWING TRADES TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLC S OF 20N TUE-THU. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-77W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 95W...GMZ080. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.