000
AGXX40 KNHC 200730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE 
IN THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE NORTHERN MEXICAN COAST ON SUN.  IF 
WINDS DO GET TO GALE FORCE THE EVENT WILL BE VERY BRIEF 
CONSIDERING THE MID LATITUDE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.  THE 
OPERATIONAL MODELS DO NOT ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE BEYOND 25 KT 
HERE.  IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED CONSIDERABLY WEAKER 
WITH THE 500 MB TROUGHING OVER THE GULF COMPARED TO THE 19/12Z 
RUN AND THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER CARRYING THE TROUGH AXIS 
EASTWARD.  CONFIDENCE IS GROWING LOWER WINDS WILL MAKE IT TO 
GALE FORCE HERE.

CARIBBEAN...
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE COLD 
FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER EASTERN CUBA AND 
ALLOWING IT TO DISSIPATE AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE ENCROACHES 
FROM THE EAST AND THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE 
GULF AND INTO THE ATLC ON SUN.  OVER THE CARIBBEAN...THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BETWEEN THE 
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE 
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE 
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA.

ATLC...
THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS PROGRESSIVE OVER THE ATLC WHERE A DEEP 
LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN FIXED IN THE VICINITY OF 
30N45W.  THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LYING ACROSS NW WATERS AND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THIS RIDGE...AS WILL 
THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLC ON SUN.  STRONG 
TRADES REIGN OVER THE REGIONS S OF 20N.

ATLANTIC...
GALE WARNING N OF 29N...AMZ080

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.