000 AGXX40 KNHC 171830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS SLIDING E ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH HAS SET UP ELY FLOW ACROSS THE E AND MIDDLE WATERS AND SLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W WATERS. WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-20 KT AREA-WIDE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING...FORECASTING AN ENTRANCE INTO THE NW WATERS WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE N WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE GULF QUICKLY WED NIGHT AND THU WITH 20-25 KT N FLOW EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. KEPT 30 KT IN THE FAVORED WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE TOPOGRAPHY USUALLY ENHANCES THIS TYPE OF WX PATTERN. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE N GULF BEHIND THE FRONT FRI THEN SLIDES SE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE N WATERS SAT. CARIBBEAN... NE TO E TRADES ARE MAINLY 15-20 KT EXCEPT TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...TRADES WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO THE W ATLC. LONG PERIOD SWELL UP TO 9 FT SLIPS THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES STARTING TOMORROW. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE WED AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THU...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA. THIS INCREASES TRADES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI...AND THE REST OF BASIN INTO SAT AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... STRONG NW WINDS ARE EVIDENT MAINLY E OF 75W ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IN EXCESS OF 15 FT WILL PUSH TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARDS THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST WED BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SE U.S. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THU AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW TO THE NORTH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OFF THE NE U.S. COAST. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO FRI AS IT SHIFTS EAST...BUT THEN DIMINISH INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. THE FRONT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT AND STALLS FROM ROUGHLY 31N55W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MIDDAY SAT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.