000 AGXX40 KNHC 161743 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EST MON FEB 16 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING S ALONG 23N/24N MARKED BY A BROKEN THIN LINE OF CLOUDS. SFC DATA AND A RECENT QSCAT PASS SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF NE TO E 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT WITH MAX SEAS APPROACHING 7 FT OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT AND WEAKEN TONIGHT/TUE IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS. SE TO S 15-20 KT WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE N WATERS EARLY WED. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED AFTERNOON AND CLEARS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE THU. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT OVER THE SW WATERS...WHERE THE FETCH IS GREATEST. HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE N WATERS FRI AND SAT ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX...ESPECIALLY N OF 24N. CARIBBEAN... TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED SOME TODAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. BUOY...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 15-20 KT TRADES S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...EXCEPT TO 25 KT IN THE USUAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LIGHTER N TO NE 10-15 KT FLOW EXISTS ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE FAR N WATERS THROUGH WED BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC INCREASING NE TRADES W OF 68W LATE TUE THROUGH THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO SLACKEN AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SE WATERS. THIS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HOWEVER...LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TUE AND/OR WED ASSOCIATED STRONG NE FLOW W OF THE FRONT. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE N SHORES OF THESE ISLANDS AND PASSAGES WED THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... LOW PRES IS INTENSIFYING NEAR 31N72W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE AS SUGGESTED BY A RECENT SHIP REPORT JUST W OF THE LOW. A GALE WARNING IS POSTED...EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SHORTLY (IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY). STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE S QUADRANT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER THE W ATLC NE OF BERMUDA TONIGHT AND TUE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE AREA REACHING 31N60W TO 20N71W TONIGHT...31N53W TO 19N69W TUE...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE NIGHT AND WED. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS E OF THE COLD FRONT AND OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM ELEVATING SEAS OVER 20 FT OVER THE FAR N WATERS. SLY WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE NW WATERS WED STRENGTHENING TO GALE FORCE N OF 28N THU AND FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FAR E WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC FRI AND SAT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N BETWEEN 57W AND 72W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.