000 AGXX40 KNHC 140726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT OVER SE TEXAS IS APPROACHING THE NW GULF...PASSING THE COAST BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEA FOG WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF FROM S TEXAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WARM MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER COOLER WATER. UPPER SUPPORT IS BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AND THE FRONT WILL STALL BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A STRONG UPPER JET NOSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES SUN...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW PRES TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER N FLORIDA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN GULF SUN INTO MON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPENS...AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEHIND THE LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE SUN...THEN DIMINISH BY MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES SOUTH. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE TUE AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER N FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN... RECENT REPORTS FROM BUOY 42058 BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS...CONSISTENT WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. OTHERWISE...15 TO 20 KT WINDS ARE MORE THE RULE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0330Z SHOWED 20 KT EAST FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS. TRADES WILL START TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING MAINLY BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MON INTO TUE...AFTER THE LOW PRES SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC SHIFTING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CUBA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE BASIN TUE INTO WED AS THE WEAKENING FRONT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT DRAPES FROM 29N55W TO 25N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SHIP REPORTS AND A 0152Z ASCAT PASS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...EAST OF 65W. FURTHER WEST...1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 29N74W...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW IN THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. FRESH TRADES ARE EVIDENT S OF 19N INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE GAME PLAN FOR THE WEEKEND CALLS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH PRES TO SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT CUTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EMERGES OFF THE COAST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY MIDDAY SUN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILS THROUGH THE N FLORIDA COAST. A SECOND LOW PRES AREA FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY...AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SUN. GLOBAL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE ATLC ON MON. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THE LOW AT A WHOPPING 981 MB N OF BERMUDA BY LATE MON. THE UKMET SHOWS A 992 MB LOW IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. THE LATEST ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER SHOWING A 996 MB LOW. STRONG GALES LATE MON INTO TUE ARE LIKELY IN THE WATERS NEAR BERMUDA GIVEN THIS RAPID DEEPENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST TUE INTO WED AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE N CENTRAL ATLC WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY SWELL UP ENVELOPES THE WATERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS WELL BEHIND THE LOW. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER