000 AGXX40 KNHC 100850 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009 ...UPDATED ATLC BUOY OBSERVATIONS.. MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF THROUGH WED. LATEST CMAN/BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM ONLY A FEW HOURS ARE SHOWING AND HAVE SHOWN SINCE YESTERDAY SE-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF GULF SW OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FL KEYS. GUSTS TO 30 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT TIMES OVER THE FAR W GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. TO THE NE OF THIS LINE WINDS ARE SE 10-15 KT. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT IN THE NW PORTION N OF 25N W OF 94W AND TO 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 21N W OF 94W. SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF 90W ARE 4-7 FT. E OF 90W...SEAS ARE 4-7 FT EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER THE FAR NE PART AND 6-9 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FL. THE SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WED OVER SW GULF ZONE. WINDS BECOME SW IN DIRECTION OVER THE NW AND MIDDLE SECTIONS ON WED AS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED MORNING. 00Z NWP MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW-N 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WED AND BRIEFLY UP TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF. THE 00Z UTC RUN OF GFS FORECAST WINDS HINTS THAT 30 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE SW GULF...ALTHOUGH OTHER MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM SHOW MAINLY 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ENOUGH FUNNELING OF NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK UP WINDS THERE TO 30 KT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9 FT WED THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BEGINNING WED NIGHT INTO LATE FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF FRI AND SAT WITH LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT S OF W OF 90W AND OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. FRONT THEN WEAKENS FROM FROM N FL TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU...THEN MOVES BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE THU AND FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON FRI. THIS FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE NW GULF ON SAT INCREASING WINDS TO N-NE 20 KT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN OVER THE E GULF BY LATE SAT. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR THE GULF ...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD 1-2 FT TO FORECAST VALUES FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LONG DURATION OF SE-S WINDS AT 20-25 KT PRIOR TO FRONT EMERGING INTO THE GULF WED MORNING. SW N ATLC...UPDATED STRONG RIDGE ALONG 31N CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW PRES WELL OVER S AMERICA. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W HAS BEEN REPORTING NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. A COUPLE OF SHIPS PASSING ALONG THE SE BAHAMAS ARE REPORTING NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS ELSEWHERE S OF 25N ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE EXCEPT 4-6 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 25N CLOSER TO THE RIDGE ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT E OF 73W AND E-SE 10 KT WINDS W OF 73W. SEAS THERE ARE BEING DERIVED FROM A N SWELL WITH RANGES OF 4-6 FT E OF 73W AND 2-4FT W OF 73W...EXCEPT 1-3 FT N OF 28N W OF 78W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SLIDES SE TO JUST E OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 26N BY THU AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS THU MORNING AND REACHES FROM 31N76W TO 29N81W BY THU AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY REACH FROM 31N66W TO 28N71W...AND STATIONARY TO E CENTRAL FL BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS DEEPENING LOW PRES EXITS THE N CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS SAT. THE LATEST GFS/NOGAPS/AND NAM MODEL RUNS FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT ARE QUITE STRONG WITH WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT ON SAT DEPICTING THEM AS SW-W 20-25 KT. SINCE SAT IS DAY 5...WILL TRIM BACK THESE WINDS TO 15-20 KT FOR NOW AND FOLLOW UP WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE IS THEY COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THE WIND SPEEDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W-NW 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE INTERACTING WITH LOW PRES OVER S AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PLAYER WITH RESPECT TO WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU. NE-TRADES OF 20-25 KT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE NOTED IN BOTH BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS OVER THIS AREA. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SINCE YESTERDAY...AND ARE NOW ABOUT 9 OR 10 FT MAXIMUM. THE 00Z UTC RUN OF THE GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THAT NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL COVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY E OF 81W WITH SEAS BUILDING AGAIN REACHING TO 14 FT OR 15 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC MOVES EWD. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED NEAR CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND PASSAGES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP 10 FT TONIGHT THROUGH THU CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS. SEAS UP TO 11 FT ARE FORECAST BY THE WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED THROUGH MUCH OF FRI BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING SAT. WINDS AND SEAS GREATLY DECREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN FRI AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.