000 AGXX40 KNHC 100731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF THROUGH WED. LATEST CMAN/BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM ONLY A FEW HOURS ARE SHOWING AND HAVE SHOWN SINCE YESTERDAY SE-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF GULF SW OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FL KEYS. GUSTS TO 30 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT TIMES OVER THE FAR W GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. TO THE NE OF THIS LINE WINDS ARE SE 10-15 KT. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT IN THE NW PORTION N OF 25N W OF 94W AND TO 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 21N W OF 94W. SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF 90W ARE 4-7 FT. E OF 90W...SEAS ARE 4-7 FT EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER THE FAR NE PART AND 6-9 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FL. THE SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WED OVER SW GULF ZONE. WINDS BECOME SW IN DIRECTION OVER THE NW AND MIDDLE SECTIONS ON WED AS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED MORNING. 00Z NWP MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMINING OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW-N 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WED AND BRIEFLY UP TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF. THE 00Z UTC RUN OF GFS FORECAST WINDS HINTS THAT 30 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE SW GULF...ALTHOUGH OTHER MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM SHOW MAINLY 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ENOUGH FUNNELING OF NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK UP WINDS THERE TO 30 KT EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BUILD TO 6-19 FT WED THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BEGINNING WED NIGHT INTO LATE FRI. FRONT THEN WEAKENS FROM FROM N FL TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU...THEN MOVES BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE THU AND FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON FRI. THIS FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE NW GULF ON SAT INCREASING WINDS TO N-NE 20 KT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN OVER THE E GULF BY LATE SAT. NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE OF SEAS UP TO 10 FT LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH CURRENT OBSERVED VALUES ACROSS THE GULF SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SEAS OF 10 FT IN THE NW GULF ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO SOME IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TO 10 FT ON TUE...THEN SUBSIDE ON WED AFTER THE FRONT HAS EMERGED INTO THE WRN GULF. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BY FRI WITH LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT W OF 90W AND E OF 85W. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB IS CENTERED OVER NE FL EARLY THIS MORNING PER 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. A RIDGE EXTENDS ESE FROM THE HIGH TO E OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH WITH LOW PRES WELL S OF THE ATLC OVER S AMERICA IS BRINGING A MODERATE NE WIND FLOW TO THE SRN WATERS OF THE AREA. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2230 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS S OF ABOUT 25N. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W HAS BEEN REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN A N SWELL. SEAS ELSEWHERE S OF 25N ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE EXCEPT 5-8 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 25N ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH NE 10-15 KT WINDS AND SEAS 4-6 FT E OF 69W AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 26N CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE SRN WATERS AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 8-11 FT THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 FT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THU AND BE ABOUT 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THAT THE HIGH IS REPLACED BY A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SEWD INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TUE. THE PARENT HIGH CENTER THEN MOVES SE TO JUST E OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 27N BY THU. A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE FAR NW WATERS ON THU AND REACHES FROM 31N65W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FL ON FRI. THIS FORCES THE RIDGE TO SLIDE SE TO ALONG 26N BY LATE ON FRI. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW 20 KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS LATE WED THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE LESSEN SOME...BUT CONTINUE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE WRN ATLC CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH LOW PRES OVER CREATING THESE WINDS. LATEST GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 8-9 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TUE. THE RESPITE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING TUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRI OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 81W...AND THE WHOLE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WITH SEAS BUILDING POSSIBLY UP TO 14 FT OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND TO 12 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VALID 00 UTC. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDS SE. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS WILL IMPACTING THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND NEARBY PASSAGES THROUGH THIS MORNING...PICK UP AGAIN TUE AND WED BUILDING TO 10 FT ON WED AND THU. THESE SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT ON FRI AS THE HIGH TO THE N SHIFTS EWD. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.