000 AGXX40 KNHC 081853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 30N SITUATED OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF E TO SE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KT...LOCALLY 25 KT NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND AS REPORTED BY THE PULASKI SHOALS CMAN AND CONFIRMED BY AN 1140 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20-25 KT W OF 90W...LOCALLY 30 KT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...AND CONTINUE INTO MON BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO 15-20 KT MON NIGHT. WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 8-10 FT TONIGHT AND MON...THEN MAINTAIN 7-9 FT SEAS THROUGH TUE IN THIS WIND REGIME. COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED WILL WEAKEN AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 20N96W BY WED EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND WEAKENING OF THE FRONT. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ROBUST MODEL IN PRODUCING A NLY SURGE OF 25-30+ KT WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WED...POSSIBLY HINTING AT GALES. GIVEN THE MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE GALES BUT WILL KEEP 30 KT WINDS IN FAVORED FUNNELING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE FRONT MOVES NWD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE N GULF ALONG 28N/29N BY LATE THU WITH RETURN FLOW ENSUING. LOW PRES OVER TEXAS MOVES EWD ALONG THE GULF STATES FRI AND DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRI. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO. SW N ATLC... STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N74W WITH RIDGE ALONG 30N PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH WITH LOW PRES WELL S OF THE ATLC OVER S AMERICA IS CONTINUING TO BRING BRISK NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS S OF 27N WHICH WAS CONFIRMED BY A 1000 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W HAS BEEN REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS AND 12 FT SEAS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MON WITH SLOWLY SUBSIDING SWELLS TO 7-10 FT S OF 27N E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 5-7 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THAT THE HIGH IS REPLACED BY A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SEWD INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE PARENT HIGH CENTER THEN MOVES SE TO JUST E OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 28N BY THU. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA THU INTO FRI TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH NOW ONLY GRAZES THE ZONE ALONG 31N THU NIGHT AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE MAIN WEATHER ACTIVE WIND/SEA AREAS REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN 1140 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 30 KT ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA AND AN AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS 42056 AND 42057 OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF THESE WINDS. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-25 KT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...EXCEPT THE WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU WITH WINDS STILL UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SEAS WILL LOWER TO 8-9 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TUE...BUT QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN WED AND THU TO POSSIBLY UP TO 14 FT OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND TO 12 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDS SE. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND NEARBY PASSAGES THROUGH MON WITH ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN TUE AND WED BUILDING TO 10 OR 11 FT ON WED AND THU. SWELLS SUBSIDE FRI. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.