000 AGXX40 KNHC 041625 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1125 AM EST WED FEB 4 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WILL SHIFT S TONIGHT AND SWEEP THROUGH MAINLY THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY THU. THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG JET MAX DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF VIGOROUS LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE THU...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES MAINLY OFF THE TEXAS BY FRI BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DIMINISH THU INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRES MIGRATES INTO THE ATLC. BY SUNDAY...A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRES SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH PRES TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN INTO MON. CARIBBEAN... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 20 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE DYING FRONT...MAINLY DUE TO A 1036 MB HIGH PRES AREA BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A SECOND FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY THU...REINFORCING THE DYING STATIONARY FRONT...AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS SE INTO N CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RESULTING TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG WITH INSTABILITY BROUGHT BY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY INTO THU. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ALONG BOTH THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA BY TONIGHT. FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE THU INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA STARTS TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN...PARTICULARLY THE SW CARIBBEAN...INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRI AND SAT. THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW NE SWELL OF UP TO 14 FT TO REACH THE PANAMA COAST FROM THU ONWARD. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ON TODAY'S WEATHER CHART OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO EASTERN CUBA...WITH THE SECOND JUST OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST FROM 31N78W TO 29N81W. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE FLORIDA COAST IS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY 41010 IS REPORTING NW WINDS AT 30 KT JUST AS THE FRONT PASSES. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...BUOY 41002 IS REPORTING WINDS ALREADY TO GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER WESTERN COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE AND MERGE WITH THE OTHER FRONT BY THU...MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AND WEAKEN. HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 30N NE OF THE BAHAMAS FRI THROUGH MON...MAINTAINING A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM N OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. ATLANTIC... AMZ088...GALE WARNING. CARIBBEAN... AMZ084...GALE WARNING. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.