000 AGXX40 KNHC 291747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EST THU JAN 29 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...PAIR OF FRONTS BRING GALES TO THE REGION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY SW...AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ALLOWING SLOW PROGRESS CURRENTLY WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIGS EAST...PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY FRI. THIS IN TURN APPLIES A STRONG REINFORCING SHOT TO THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SE GULF BY FRI NIGHT. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE NW GULF ACCORDING TO BUOY REPORTS...WITH 15 TO 20 KT BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE GULF BY LATE EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE ALONG MEXICAN COAST FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ BY EARLY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUN...AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MON. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN ON THE LEFT FRONT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...AND AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ALLOWS SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE SUN...TRACKING INTO N FLORIDA THROUGH LATE MON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR SW GALES AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MORE CERTAIN IS THE NEED FOR GALE WARNINGS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE GULF BY EARLY TUE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT. THE STRONG NE WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ONGOING STRONG WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS BY LATE SAT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...JUST AS WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN. THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS LATE SUN INTO MON...AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF. THIS FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW WINDS...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT BY LATE TUE. SW ATLANTIC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST MAKES LIMITED PROGRESS EAST TODAY...BUT THEN RECEIVES A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS EVENING...REACHING A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY SAT. THE FRONT BECOMES MORE ORIENTED E-W SUN...AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT...EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 25N55W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE AND FOLLOW THE FRONT N OF 25N THROUGH SAT. WINDS SUBSIDE N OF THE BAHAMAS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT STRONG TRADES PERSIST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS S OF THE HIGH PRES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CHARGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON MON. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE EXPECTED DEEP LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND DEEPENING N OF THE AREA MON INTO TUE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SW GALES ON TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA AS DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS TENDS TO OVERDO THE EXTENT OF GALES IN THIS AREA...OFTEN TOO FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL MENTION GALES EXPECTED IN THE OFFNT3 FORECAST FOR THAT TIME. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING GMZ082 FRI. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.