000 AGXX40 KNHC 140751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF YESTERDAY IS NOW SE OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW WINDS TO 20 KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04Z INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT STILL IN EFFECT OVER THE FAR SW GULF WATERS IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. BUOY DATA AND A JASON ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 12 FT IN THE SW GULF IN DECAYING NORTHERLY SWELL. OTHERWISE SEAS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT AREA WIDE. WINDS INCREASE ON THU FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1040 MB BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AGAIN SAT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CARIBBEAN... STRONG TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT NOTED ON QUIKSCAT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE LIKELY AT LEAST 12 FT IN THIS AREA BASED ON 10 FT REGISTERING AT BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS AT BUOY 42056 ARE ONLY 10 KT CURRENTLY...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM CUBA TO BELIZE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER FRI AND SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM CUBA TO HONDURAS AS STRONGER HIGH PRES REINFORCES TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WEAKENS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES CROSSES THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SAT. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN BY SUN AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS N OF PUERTO RICO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N IN AN ASCAT PASS AND PER BUOY 44004. ASCAT ALSO SHOWS 20 KT TRADES N OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS TO 10 FT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHERLY SWELL. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST BUT THEN STALL FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TODAY. REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THU INTO FRI...ALLOWING THE FRONT VERY SLOW EAST PROGRESS...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW FRI INTO SAT. WAVEWATCH IS HINTING OF SEAS IN EXCESS OF 13 FT PUSHING INTO THE BAHAMAS IN N TO NE SWELL BY EARLY SAT...MIXING WITH EAST SWELL TO 12 FT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE WINDS DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY SAT INTO SUN...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S. WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO WATERS OFF N FLORIDA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ADVANCING TROUGH...THE GRADIENT MAY STAY A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THUS WILL HOLD ONTO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO SUN. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.