000 AGXX40 KNHC 130757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TEXAS IS DIGGING EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EAST TEXAS...REACHING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO LATER LATER THIS MORNING AND REINFORCING A STATIONARY COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REINFORCED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE SE U.S. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT REACHING MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO WED AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON THU. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERY STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THIS FRONT THU INTO FRI FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO GEORGIA...POSSIBLY ALLOWING WINDS TO NEAR GALE STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN... AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0300Z SHOWED TRADES TO NEAR 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE 2O TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF A WEDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...BUT SUBSIDE FRI INTO SAT AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL FOR NOW...BUT WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY WED AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM CUBA TO BELIZE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN GOING THU INTO FRI AS A REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THESE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SAT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS GENERALLY ALONG 28N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 22N. FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED ON SHIP...BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA S OF 22N. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND STALLS FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MIDDAY WED AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. SW GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT N OF 29N BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 20 TO 25 KT NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBSIDING LATE WED INTO THU. A REINFORCING FRONT CHARGES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER THU. COLD AIR ADVECTION...IN PART DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONT... THU...WILL MIX STRONG GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THU INTO FRI. THE STRONG NE WINDS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY INTO SAT AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WIND WAVES REACH 12 FT IN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL TO 11 FT BY SAT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.