000 AGXX40 KNHC 071837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH 23N90W TO 24N98W. A QUIKSCAT AROUND 12 UTC SUGGESTED A LARGE AREA OF N TO NE 20 KT WINDS OF 90W AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN BUOY REPORTS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW LIKELY 15 KT TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT E OF 90W N OF THE FRONT AND 10 TO 15 KT W OF 90W. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXTEND FROM NEAR THE FRONT AT 90W SW INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDING THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER ALSO INDICATED SCATTERED 20 KT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF...AND BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N94W HAS RECENTLY REPORTED NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT IN THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. IN THE SHORT-TERM...HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MIGRATE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS BY MON...ALLOWING THE WESTERN END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NOW OVER THE GULF TO LIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSTM COULD NEAR AND N OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THE INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS THE GULF COAST LATE MON. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...A RAPIDLY INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE GULF...WITH MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT SE TO S FLOW BY TUE MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. SEAS SHOULD RAPIDLY BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE AND 6 TO 9 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER TUE AND INTO WED. LONGER-TERM...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR DAYS NOW IN FORECASTING A GALE EVENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE. THE GFS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 TO 45 KT WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE NW AND THEN SW ZONES GOING INTO WED...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EVEN THE LAST SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN INDICATING 35- TO 40 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 10 AND 18 FT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS DIMINISH FROM N TO S WED INTO THU. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...ALL OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS SINCE YESTERDAY CONTINUE TO BE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z RUN IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT FOR 06Z. DESPITE THE INSISTENCE OF THE GFS...THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF SOLNS. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE GULF THU MORNING...NW TO N SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GULF WHILE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. GOING INTO FRI...ANOTHER VERY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE CAROLINAS AND BRING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF /EXCEPT PERHAPS THE SW PART/. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... FOR THE MOST PART...TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ARE AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER...WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THE TYPICAL HIGHER VALUES FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...WITH WINDS AROUND 25 KT DIRECTLY OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE AVERAGING 5 TO 8 FT. IN THE SHORT-TERM...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING DEEPER INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE TODAY SHOULD REACH THE CAROLINAS MON AND MIGRATE FARTHER E TUE AND WED. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND THE FORECAST PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND RELATIVE LOW PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FAIRLY DRAMATIC INCREASE IN TRADES EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME MARGINAL INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE MORE DRAMATIC INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN BY MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE FAVORS NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THIS TIME...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT IN E SWELL. ELSEWHERE NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E...WITH HIGHEST WINDS TO THE N...AND 15 TO 20 KT NE TO E WINDS SHOULD BECOME E TO SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TUE. ALTHOUGH WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SHOWS NO 8 FT SEAS OVER THE NW OR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE FORECAST WINDS AND THEIR EXPECTED DURATION WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR UP TO 8 TO POSSIBLY 9 FT SEAS AT SOME POINT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL...AS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ...BE GENERALLY N OF 16N...BUT WINDS THERE SHOULD PEAK EARLY WED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT. LONGER-TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING WED FROM W TO E...AS THE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA SHIFTS FARTHER E. HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...THE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 15N. BY THU AND FRI...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EVEN FARTHER E AND ALLOW MARINE CONDITIONS TO RECOVER. IN FACT...AFTER A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 13 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE...SEAS SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4 TO 7 FT FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDING OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TOO...THOUGH MORE SLOWLY...SINCE NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE GOING INTO FRI. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN WATERS THU MORNING AND EVENTUALLY STALL LATER FRI FROM SE CUBA TO AROUND THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAN BORDER. DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...NW TO N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 11 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE N AND ITS SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E...N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO SOMETIMES 25 KT WILL STILL COVER A LARGE AREA NW OF THE FRONT FRI...WITH SEAS AVERAGING 6 TO 9 FT S OF 18N IN N SWELL AND 4 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. SW N ATLANTIC... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES HAS PUSHED THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS YESTERDAY WELL THE SE TODAY. AS OF THIS WRITING...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED FROM ABOUT 31N69W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED W TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. SINCE THEN...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF STRONGER WINDS HAS PROGRESSED E WITH THE FRONT...WITH NW TO N WINDS RELAXING TO 15 TO 20 KT NEAR THE NE FLORIDA COAST. OFFSHORE THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND INTO THE NW BAHAMAS...C-MAN AND BUOY REPORTS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KT OF NW FLOW. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 6 TO 10 FT W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL W OF THE BAHAMAS. N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF SW TO W 20 TO 25 KT EXISTS...WITH BUOY 44004 LOCATED NEAR 28.8N71.7W REPORTING SW 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS NOW TO 7 FT. WINDS ARE ALSO STRONG N OF 25N IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N66W TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT ESTIMATES SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW FLOW...WITH 4 TO 5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE E OF THE BAHAMAS. SHORT-TERM...ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS APPEARS TO BE COMING TO A HALT. BY THIS TIME TOMORROW ...THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING FROM 25N65W TO EAST CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD N OF THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER WHILE IT SLIDES FROM THE CAROLINAS EARLY MON INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED AND THU. AS THIS OCCURS...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WILL TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY AND FAVOR STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT...WITH 20 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE E OF 73W TUE AND WED. IN EFFECT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL NEVER GET A CHANCE TO ENTIRELY DIMINISH OR SUBSIDE W OF THE FRONT. 6 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL W OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 75W SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW LATER MON WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON NIGHT AND 8 TO 12 FT ALL AREAS E OF THE BAHAMAS LATE TUE INTO WED. LONGER-TERM...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF WED BUTTING UP AGAINST THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE E WILL MAKE FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE 'WIND MACHINE' OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE SE TO S OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATE TUE AND WED...WHILE EASTERLY SWELL CREEPS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS CHAIN AND CAUSES SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THE NE GULF OF FL PANHANDLE LATE WED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SINCE IT APPEARS THAT SOME WAVE WILL FORM...THIS SHOULD FURTHER THE ALREADY STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE NW WATERS AND LEAD TO A POSSIBLE GALE EVENT. AT THIS POINT...A MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF A SOUTHERLY GALE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W VERY LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. WITH EASTERLY SWELL MERGING WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SWELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT OR 7 TO 11 FT ...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS LATE WED INTO EARLY THU...THEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS. W OF THE FRONT W TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT N OF 26N WILL BECOMING NW TO N BY EARLY FRI AND THEN NE LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL STATES INTO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD HELP CONTINUE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT RIGHT THROUGH FRI. NO LET UP TO THE WIND AND ENHANCED SEAS IS FORESEEN THIS COMING WEEK. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.