000 AGXX40 KNHC 060245 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 945 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML ...UPDATE.... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EITHER LATE TUE OR EARLY WED. ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN GALE CONDITIONS OVER A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF HAS INCREASED...THE TIMING OF THE EVENT REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AS A RESULT...THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH THE CLOSED CYCLONE FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THE NON-NCEP SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THAT ALL THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND HAS BEEN AND IS COMPLETELY AT ODDS WITH THE GFS...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. AS A RESULT...GALE CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF NOW APPEAR MOST LIKELY LATER WED AS OPPOSED TO LATE TUE OR EARLY WED. MARINERS...PLEASE CONTINUE TO CONSULT FUTURE UPDATES FOR FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KIMBERLAIN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MAKING SLOW SE PROGRESS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO A 1019 MB LOW NEAR 21N96W. SFC DATA AND A 1130Z QSCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT E OF 91W AND 15-20 KT NE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY DRIFT SE AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. BY SAT AFTERNOON...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL REINFORCE THE FRONT GIVING IT A PUSH S THRU THE E AND MIDDLE WATERS. HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM W-E ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUN AND MON SHIFTING THE FLOW FROM NE TO SE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND E WATERS. STRONGER SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE W WATERS MON IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING WITH GFS/NOGAPS BRINGING THE FRONT OFF THE TX COAST TUE AFTERNOON...ECMWF TUE NIGHT AND UKMET WED. FOR NOW GOING WITH THE EARLIER SCENARIOS AND FORECASTING WINDS TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT THIS COULD CERTAINLY BE THE NEXT GALE EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE AND WILL PUT A HEADLINE...IF NEEDED...WHEN WE GAIN CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... MORNING SCATTEROMETER AND SFC DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED WINDS. ONE OF THESE IS IN THE USUAL LOCATION OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. THE OTHER IS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF CUBA...LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN SUN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MON AND TUE AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. WW3 APPEARS TO BE OVERESTIMATING NE SWELL IN THE TROP N ATLC ZONE BY ABOUT 2 FT. TOOK THIS INTO ACCOUNT IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE NW CORNER FROM 31N80W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE LIGHT...10 KT OR LESS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL THE FRONT BECOME REINFORCED LATE SAT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR N WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY SUN NIGHT/MON BUT NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO 7-10 FT OVER THE NE WATERS. BY TUE...HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA A LOW PRES SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SLY WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.