000 AGXX40 KNHC 040725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST THU DEC 04 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML THE GULF OF MEXICO... QSCAT PASS FROM 0046 UTC SHOWS 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OFF THE TX COAST IN THE REGION FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. OBSERVATIONS OFF THE TX COAST SHOW SEAS TO AT LEAST 10 FT HERE UNDER THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER TX WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH FRI. BY THE WEEKEND...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD LOSE MUCH OF ITS PUNCH AS ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORCED NORTHWARD OVER THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF BY SUN. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT A RELATIVELY STRONG RIDGE TO BEGIN ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF...INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE EASTERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT/MON. BY MON...THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF AND ONCE AGAIN GENERATING STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. WHILE THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEY AGREE ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO ACROSS THE GULF. THE SW N ATLC... ACCORDING TO THE 2304 QSCAT PASS...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE BEGINNING TO ABATE WITH ONLY A FEW RETURNS BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS REPORTING IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE PERSISTENT RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN/SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE BROAD TROUGH NEAR 45W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW WATERS FRI AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY SUN AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AT THIS POINT...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION. THEREFORE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SPEED THE GFS UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF SOLUTION SUN AND MON. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC ZONE... LIKE IN THE SW N ATLC...THE QSCAT PASS FROM 0318 UTC REVEALS THE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION HAVE ABATED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EASTERLY TRADES SHOULD DOMINATE THE FLOW HERE...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.