000 AGXX40 KNHC 300716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 715 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 31N86W TO 23N98W. THE TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING SLY 20-25 KT WINDS E OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 94W...BUT THERE ARE LIKELY HIGHER GUSTS IN THE LINE OF TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. W OF THE FRONT...N TO NE WINDS 20 KT ARE NOTED. A STRONG SHARP MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL COME IN PHASE WITH THE FRONT CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 25-35 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND ITS REINFORCEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH MON FOR THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRES SHIFTS QUICKLY W-E ACROSS THE GULF MON AND TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE WED. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD AND STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID-LATE WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SFC DATA AND QSCAT PASS SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE/E TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS ELSEWHERE. INCREASING NE TO E TRADES TO 20 KT ARE IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TODAY THRU WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT. S TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY TODAY. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE W OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS MON...E CUBA TO NICARAGUA MON NIGHT...AND STALL AND WEAKEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA TUE AND WED. NE SWELLS...ORIGINATING FROM A COMPLEX AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC...IS ELEVATING SEAS OVER THE TROP N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. HOWEVER...WW3 DATA APPEARS TO BE OVERESTIMATING THIS SWELL BY ABOUT 2 FT. TOOK THIS DATA INTO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. SW N ATLC... S TO SW WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 20 KT ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER AND OFFSHORE OF THE SE CONUS. ONCE THE FRONT GAINS SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS...IT WILL WORK ITS WAY SE INTO THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL ENTER THE NW CORNER THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. SLY GALE WINDS NOW APPEAR LIKELY AS GFS INDICATES CORE WINDS OF 40 KT AND EVEN THE LOWER RES NGPS HAS 35 KT. BY LATE MON...THE LEADING FRONT AND ITS REINFORCEMENT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY MID-WEEK FROM 28N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM W TO E. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING GMZ084 FORECASTER FORMOSA. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.