000 AGXX40 KNHC 152003 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DENOTES THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY SE FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FL SW TO JUST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NUMEROUS 30 KT N WIND VECTORS WITH SEVERAL 35 KT WIND BARBS IN THE NW GULF PRIMARILY W OF 93W BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1540 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED 30 KT MANY 30 KT WIND VECTORS OVER THE NW GULF...AND FAR SW GULF TO THE NW OF THE FRONT WITH A FEW 35 KT NW-N WIND VECTORS. GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF W OF 94W ...BUT WINDS SHOULD DROP TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER TEXAS MOVES E AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN WHILE FRONT PULLS FURTHER SE. ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT...THE QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 25-30 KT N WINDS. BUOY...C-MAN DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUPPORT THE QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA. GLOBAL NCEP MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT CLEARS THE GULF OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. SEA STATE HAS PEAKED UP TO 13 FT OVER THE S PORTION OF THE NW GULF...AND FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF AS REVEALED BY BUOYS 42020 AND 42002. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW-N OVER MUCH OF THE ENTIRE GULF SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING...HOWEVER EXPECT A NW SWELL OF UP TO 11 OR 12 FT TO LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE AND E GULF S OF ABOUT 26N SUN NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DECREASING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING N-NE WINDS IN TE NW GULF MONDAY...WITH 2-3 FT SEAS N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF WED AND THU AS GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX. HIGHER NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE AND EARLY WED AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND E GULF...EXITING THE GULF ON WED. THIS WILL PEAK SEAS UP TO 9 FT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE GULF EARLY WED...THEN SUBSIDING LATER TO 4-6 FT AND TO 3-5 FT THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1100 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NE PART WITH LIGHTER E WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE SECTION...AND VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KT OVER THE NW PORTION. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...THE VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SHARPLY TO NW-N 20-25 KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. WINDS OVER THE E PORTION OF THE SEA SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT SUN NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO ALONG A LINE FROM SE CUBA TO 16N85W SUN NIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM 20N74W TO NE HONDURAS MON EVENING. A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES IN TO THE W CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SURGE OF NLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 12 FT. THESE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE SE PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND PERHAPS REMAINING AT 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS ON THU. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...N OF 29N W OF 78W WINDS ARE S-SW 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN MORNING...AND WEAKEN FROM 31N69W TO E CUBA SUN EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM 29N65W TO 20N74W BY MON EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MON NIGHT...AND EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO 28N81W BY TUE MORNING...AND FROM 31N67W TO THE STRAITS OF FL TUE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE FIRST FRONT FROM 28N65W TO HAITI TUE EVENING...AND FROM 22N65W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WED EVENING...AND SE OF AREA THU. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING TIL 12Z ...GMZ082 FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.