000 AGXX40 KNHC 150636 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WELL-PUBLICIZED...STRONG COLD FRONT JUST NOW MOVING OFF THE UPPER AND CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. AS OF THIS TIME...WHAT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE INDICATE 10 TO 15 KT OF NW FLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRON...EXCEPT NOW TO 20 KT NEAR BEAUMONT AND HOUSTON. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS IN ITS WAKE THIS MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SURGE FROM THE NW TO N AND REACH GALE FORCE AT OR JUST AFTER 09Z OVER THE NW GULF WATERS. IN THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...BUOY AND C-MAN DATA OVER THE NW GULF SHOW 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WITH PERIODS OF 6-7 SEC. SEAS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY BUILD BY 12Z...HOWEVER...TO 6 TO 10 FT OVER A LARGE PART OF THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. OVER THIS REGION...BUOY REPORTS AND AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRM A SW TO W FLOW OF UP TO 20 KT NEAR AND BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT WHICH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE E. WITH THE INTERMITTENT...STRONGER WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FT SEEM TO BE THE RULE...THOUGH VALUES TO 6 FT ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS NOW MOSTLY MOVED ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE SE TO S WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS PREVAIL MOSTLY E OF 90W WITH E TO SE 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE SW WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE ABOVE TWO AREAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LIE SE OF THE AREA JUST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 12 TO 16 FT SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD LIKEWISE BE STRONG TO THE E BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH NOT QUITE TO GALE FORCE. EXPECT SEAS TO PEAK BETWEEN 8 AND 14 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING E OF 90W. JUST AS RAPIDLY AS THE WINDS SURGED TO GALE FORCE...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE GULF BY SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE OVER THIS AREA THAT THE NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST WILL LIE BY SUN EVENING... WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS... HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THAT TIME. LONGER-TERM...MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWS N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT FLOW OVER THE NW HALF OF THE GULF MONDAY...WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS EXCEPT LOCALLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. N TO NE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE BLOWING OVER THE SE HALF...WHERE THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTER...WITH SEAS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BY MONDAY EVENING OR NIGHT...A SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL HAVE DESCENDED OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS...USHERING IN A FRESH ROUND OF NORTHERLY 15 TO 20 KT FLOW. THE FRONT SHOULD CREEP SOUTHWARD TUE...BRINGING WITH IT A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT N TO NE FLOW E OF 90W...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE E. SEAS... WHICH WERE IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING...SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT OVER THE SE WATERS AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TAPER OFF. AGAIN...THE EMPHASIS OF THIS SECOND...ALBEIT BRIEF...WIND EVENT TUESDAY SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NOT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AS WITH THE CURRENT EVENT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN ACTIVE BUT WEAK AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE TRAVELING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING IS BRINGING WITH IT A LARGE EXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS AND ENHANCED SEAS. THE SOURCE OF THE WIND IS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE /1007-1008 MB/ AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WELL TO THE N. QUIKSCAT AND BUOY DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS HOWLING FROM WELL E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NOW. AS OF 06Z...WAVE HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXCEPT S OF 10N...AND 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO BE FROM 10N TO 15N WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 57W. THE CURRENT WIND EVENT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHOWING SIGNS OF WINDING DOWN LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY E OF 70W. ALTHOUGH SOME WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE AROUND 20 KT INTO MON...OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THE OTHER WIND EVENT OF IMPORTANCE IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE AS SOON AS SAT EVENING...AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL JUST BEYOND 00Z. THE SHORTWAVE DELIVERING THE FRONT THAT FAR S WILL LIFT OUT...LEAVING THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SE CUBA TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS OR NORTHERN NICARAGUA BY SUN EVENING. ALTHOUGH 10 KT OR LESS NE TO E FLOW CURRENTLY IS BLOWING ACROSS MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEAS /EXCEPT S OF 18N E OF 80W/...N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE UNABATED INTO MON...PERHAPS DROPPING OF TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THEN. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT OR POSSIBLY 7 TO 11 FT ARE LIKELY TO BUILD IN NORTHERLY SWELL COMING OUT OF THE GULF. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE EVEN SHOWING THE FRONT DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO NICARAGUA LATER MON AND TUE...POSSIBLY LEADING TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DROPPING S OF 15N W OF 82W. LONGER-TERM...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GULF TUE SHOULD REIGNITE THE STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT. IN FACT...AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WINDS SHOULD REGAIN THEIR EARLIER VIGOR...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE S OF 20N W OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH THE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO LINGER INTO WED...THERE SHOULD BE SOME MARGINAL DIMINUTION TO THE WIND AND SEAS BY THAT TIME. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ALONG TO THE W HAS NOW ENTERED THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BRINGING WITH IT A TRAIL OF ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS EXTENDING WELL E. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE EXPANSE OF E TO SE 20 KT S OF 27N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS NOW ALONG 74W. NE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY PRECEDING THE TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE SE FLORIDA COAST. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NW WATERS...IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE E AND THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF WATERS. A COMBINATION OF WAVEWATCH AND BUOY DATA FROM THIS REGION SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT AS OF THIS WRITING...AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EXPAND E THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY N OF 28N. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY TODAY...BUT ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ITS E...ESP S OF 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS AT LEAST THROUGH SUN. MEANWHILE...THE STRONG FRONT SHOULD BARREL OFF THE COAST SAT AFTERNOON...WITH NW 20 TO 30 KT WINDS BUILDING BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. N OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF THE FRONT...SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT ARE FORECAST TO BUILD BY 12Z SUN. N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY REACHING SPEEDS OF UP TO 30 KT...WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT. AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE FRONT SE LIFTS OUT...IT SHOULD LEAVE THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY SUN NIGHT FROM 31N66W TO SE CUBA...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DRAMATICALLY DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING BEHIND IT. IN FACT...BY 06Z MON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMAINING STRONG WINDS...NE 20 TO PERHAPS 25 KT SHOULD LIE WITHIN 270 NM NW OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. EVEN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE. A LARGE EXPANSE OF 6 TO 9 FT SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL WILL PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT...WITH THE SWELL EVEN WORKING ITS WAY W OF THE BAHAMAS AS THE WINDS VEER NE. LONGER-TERM...ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE LATER MON INTO TUE...WITH MOSTLY E TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY STRONG OFF THE SE FLORIDA COAST INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THIS TIME...WITH NE SWELL OOZING INTO THE PASSAGES AND ENTERING THE AREA W OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FT OR 4 TO 6 FT MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND KEYS. OF MORE IMPORTANCE THOUGH WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING SE INTO THE NW WATERS LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY PUSH SE AND CAUSE THE FIRST FRONT TO BECOME RE-ENERGIZED AND MOVE FARTHER SE. WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT TUE...NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL SPREAD SE W OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER. SEAS N AND OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO PEAK BETWEEN 9 AND 15 FT LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO WED. LOTS OF NW TO N SWELL SHOULD PROPAGATING S AND E OF THE EAST COAST TUE AND WED NEXT WEEK...KEEPING SEAS OF 8 TO 15 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS INTO LATE WED...EVEN WHILE WINDS DIMINISH. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING...GMZ080 AND GMZ082 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.