000 AGXX40 KNHC 200756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE GULF OF MEXICO...A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL STALL DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. QUIKSCAT AND BUOY DATA HAVE BEEN SHOWING NE 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE BIG BEND AREA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGHEST WINDS UP TO 25 KT REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY LIMITED. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. EAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF BY THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH TEXAS TOWARD THE NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED/EARLY THU...REACHING THE MIDDLE GULF EARLY FRIDAY...AND MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... A 1011 MB LOW PRES AREA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE BELIZE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH...AND THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 40N WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS N OF GUYANA TUE...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER NEXT WEEK...SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR BELIZE...BUT GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW SHIFT WEST OVERLAND AND WEAKENING. THIS LEAVES MODERATE TO FRESH EAST FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 20N W OF 55W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PUSH SE AND EXTEND FROM 31N56W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE MON...BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING BY MID WEEK. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STARTING TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO AREA BUOYS. AS COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD... EXPECT WINDS TO 25 KT BY TONIGHT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. BUOYS AND QUIKSCAT SHOW SW 20 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A RIDGE AXIS NOSES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING FRESH SWELL UP TO 13 FT PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE BAHAMAS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY WED...AND PUSH SOUTH OF 31N THU. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BEHIND FRONT...PROMPTING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU INTO FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MT. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.