000 AGXX40 KNHC 171752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...DRIFTING BUOY 42542 OFF TAMPICO MEXICO SHOWED 25 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING...WEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING AGAIN TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT DIGS EAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL BAND OF 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST...DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GULF BY MON. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN...TROPICAL STORM OMAR CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM OMAR INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN...THEN ROUGHLY ALONG 16N TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N75W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THEN ON TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 18N86W THAT IS PART OF THE REMNANT OF T.D. SIXTEEN. QUIKSCAT AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS N OF THE TROUGH W OF 70W. THE TROUGH AND THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT...BUT GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER. THE GFS SHOWS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT SO AGGRESSIVE HOWEVER...AND SHOW THE LOW GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W WILL MOVE WEST REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK. A SECOND WAVE NEAR 30N WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY MIDWEEK. ATLANTIC...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST OVER ATLANTIC WATERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS AROUND HIGH PRES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATER ON SATURDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE SUN...AND BE SE AND E OF THE AREA BY TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT FRESH SWELL UP TO 12 FT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NE OF THE BAHAMAS INTO TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.