000
AGXX40 KNHC 140740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF VORTEX MOVED W INTO W BAY OF CAMPECHE 
ALLOWING BROAD ANTICYCLONE OVER ERN CONUS TO MOVE OVER SE 
STATES.  TROUGH ALOFT FROM VORTEX TO NE GULF AND ACROSS N 
FLORIDA BECOME E-W ORIENTED ACROSS SW N ATLC.  TROUGH FORCED
S BY RIDGE MOVING OVER SE STATES BRINGS DRY AIR MASS ALL 
THE WAY S TO 25N BY THU BEFORE STALLING THEN DRIFT E OUT OF 
FORECAST AREA FRI.  

ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER WRN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS OUTFLOW OVER LOW 
PRES CENTER NEAR 15N82W ENHANCING ITS CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT... 
ALBEIT ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN NEAR 
14N69W COMPLICATES SCENARIO BY FORCING THE EXTENSION OF RIDGE 
EASTWARD.  HOW MUCH THE OUTFLOW OF ONE LOW PRES AFFECT THE OTHER 
BRINGS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF 
EITHER ONE.

MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVE E FROM CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO E 
COAST AND BRING BROAD TROUGH TO AREA N OF 25N FROM 70W-85W SAT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM 
TODAY AND DRIFT NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO WED NIGHT THEN INTENSIFY 
TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER TROPICAL ATLC THU NIGHT. 
REFER TO NHC ADVISORIES UNDER MIATCMAT4 AND MIATCDAT4 FOR 
DETAILS. 

LOW PRES OVER WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W EXPECTED TO DRIFT N THEN 
SHIFT W INTO GULF OF HONDURAS.  SIMILARLY TO INTENSITY... 
FORECAST REMAINS VERY SUSPICIOUS GIVEN THE COMPLEX NATURE OF 
TWO SYSTEMS SO CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.  GUIDANCE SPLIT IN TIMING 
AND POSITION BUT FORECAST FOLLOW THE BULK OF CONSENSUS MODELS.  

COLD FRONT MOVE OFF N GULF COAST LATE FRI AND MOVE RAPIDLY 
ACROSS N GULF EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO SAT.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.