000
AGXX40 KNHC 051735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SYNOPSIS...ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH 31N73W 25N81W DRIFTING W. 
GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH 27N84W TO 20N89W AND RIDGE NE TO SW ALONG 
TEXAS COAST. TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 68 MOVING W 11 KT AND 
ANOTHER WAVE LOCATED S OF 18N ALONG 45W ALSO MOVING W AT 11 KT.

ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTING W...CONVECTION DISSIPATING WITH
MOSTLY PATCHY RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. THE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH SEAS AT MAX OF 8 FT NEAR 
27N84W THIS AM. STILL EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO DISSIPATE BY LATE 
MON NIGHT OVER FL WITH THE SOUTHER SEGMENT DISSIPATING OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

MODEL GUIDANCE STILL FLUCTUATING ON TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT IN 
N GULF OF MEXICO BUT IT IS MORE CONSISTENT NOW ON STRENGTH OF 
WINDS...EXPECT N-NE 15-20 KT RANGE BEHIND FRONT OVER W GULF WITH 
FRONT MOVING OVER THE NW COASTAL PLAINS SOMETIME TUE. AS TROUGH 
DISSIPATES OVER FL MON AND MON NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL 
RACE SSE OVER ATLC WATERS REACHING TO ALONG 24N WITH WINDS 
INCREASING BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT IN HIGH PRES 
BUILDING IN WAKE OF FRONT. THIS NEW RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS N 
FL AND BLOCK E ADVANCE OF GULF OF MEXICO FRONT TO LINE FROM FL 
PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS GULF FRONT WILL DRIFT 
NW LATE THU NIGHT WITH NEXT FRONT NW GULF OF MEXICO FRI.

TROPICAL WAVES NOT HAVING MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN 
CONVECTION SO ONLY MENTIONED WAVE PSN ON GRAPHICS. 
MODELS...INCLUDING GFS...NOW AGREE ON MODERATE 10-15 KT TRADES 
IN TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.