000 AGXX40 KNHC 041702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL TROUGH 31N73W 24N81W TO WEAK LOW PRES 25N87W 1011 MB. GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE 31N90W 25N97W. ATLC RIDGE 31N59W 27N72W. TROPICAL WAVE S OF 18N ALONG 62.5W MOVING W 11 KT AND ANOTHER WAVE RELOCATED E TO ALONG 48W THIS MORNING AND ALSO MOVING W AT 11 KT. ATLC RIDGE NOW BLOCKING EASTWARD ADVANCE OF MERGED FRONT AND TROUGH WITH THE PORTION S OF 27N DRIFTING W UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION VICINITY BAHAMAS CHANNEL AND S FL PORTS. GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGH AND GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MAX OF 7 FT ALONG NE FL COAST AND OVER SE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADING W OVER S CENTRAL GULF WATERS AROUND SUNSET TODAY. ALSO SEE SE 15-20 KT WINDS OVER NW CARIBBEAN ATTM...BUT SEAS ONLY TO ABOUT 4 FT SO FAR PER BUOY 42056 WHICH ALSO HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SURFACE CONDITIONS NEAR CARIBBEAN LOW PRES. TROUGH EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY MON NIGHT EXCEPT OVER NE FL WHERE MODELS HANG ON REMNANTS AND DRIFT IT W OVER N FL INTO MID WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL FLUCTUATING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT IN N GULF OF MEXICO...SO MADE AN ADJUSTMENT TO TIMING IN THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE TO ARRIVAL TX COAST LATE TUE BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY. AS MENTIONED ATLC RIDGE BLOCKING CURRENT FRONTAL TROUGH TO W OF 70W AND EXPECTED TO PUSH REMNANTS FURTHER W TO ALONG 80W NEXT WEEK ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE INTO NE ATLC AREA EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA MID WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES NOT HAVING MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN CONVECTION SO ONLY MENTIONED ON GRAPHICS. MODELS...INCLUDING GFS...NOW AGREE ON MODERATE 10-15 KT TRADES S OF 18N LATE IN PERIOD...BUT E 15...TO PERHAPS 20 KT IN A 18N-23N BELT MAINLY E OF BAHAMIAN CHAIN SUN INTO MON THEN DIMINISHING. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.