000 AGXX40 KNHC 040646 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC... WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WWD AS A WARM FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N78W ACROSS S FLORIDA TO 23N81W BY LATE SUN. NWD MOVING CONVECTION HINTS THAT THE FRONT MAY ALREADY BE BACKING WWD. THE GFS MAY BE PICKING UP ON A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND APPEARS TO BE THE SOLE OUTLIER IN DEVELOPING THIS FRONTAL WAVE AND SLIDING IT NWD ALONG THE FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH IS NOT PRESENT IN THE OTHER MODELS. A WEAKER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. IN ANY EVENT NE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT BRIEFLY REACH 15-20 KT LATER TODAY INTO SUN AND SPILL INTO THE E GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS. BUILDING HIGH PRESS OVER THE NE CONUS USHERS IN FRESH NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE N PORTIONS OF THE ATLC TUE AND WED IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS 8-11 FT IN THIS FLOW. NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST AT TUE NIGHT/WED IS MUCH WEAKER IN THE GFS THIS RUN WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS NOTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH DEPICTS A WEAKER FRONT WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY THE CMC SHOWS A VERY STRONG FRONT WITH GALES OVER THE SW GULF WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... RESIDUAL FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NW CARIBBEAN IS BECOMING DIFFUSE THOUGH STILL PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR A WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 18N86W. OTHER FEATURES ARE A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W MOVING W 10-12 KT AND ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 49W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES TRADES ARE GENERALLY LIGHT PER THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. SUBNORMAL TRADES CONTINUE INTO SUN AS THE GFS APPEARS TO PICK UP ON THE WAVE ALONG 49W AND MOVES IT THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE SUN AND MON...AND INTO THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT IN SUB-NORMAL TRADES EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.