000 AGXX40 KNHC 240527 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 127 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH ALONG 80W. ELSEWHERE A WEAK RIDGE. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE CIRCULATION IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND BY SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL LIE ALONG THE EAST UNITED STATES COAST AND EXTEND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS. THE WEAK RIDGE WILL COVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SURFACE... RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. JUST NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BESIDES THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER REPUBLICA DOMINICANA A BROAD LOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THIS LOW EXTENDS NORTH OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD LOW IS FOCUSED JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC AREA TODAY. THE BROAD LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WITH THE WINDS DECREASING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PATTERN SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND A WEAK RIDGE NEAR 25N BUT OVERALL A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG 70W AND REACH 31N A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...NOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DOES NOT DEVELOP THE LOW AS MUCH AS IT HAS IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FATE OF THE SYSTEM DEPENDS ON..AMONG OTHER THINGS...THE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION WHICH IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY EITHER THE MODELS OR THE FORECASTERS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING...N OF 30N W OF FRONTAL TROUGH TODAY. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER LL. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.