000 AGXX40 KNHC 160630 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N84W TO A FRONTAL WAVE LOW NEAR 26N95W WITH FRONT CONTINUING S TO 19N96W. THE LOW NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MODELS FLUCTUATING ON STRENGTH OF FRONT AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WHERE FRONT WILL STALL. WILL GO WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF FRONT MAKING IT S TO CENTRAL FL BUT BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH REMNANTS EVENTUALLY DRIFTING W FRI AND SAT. STILL EXPECTING N WINDS MAX AT 25 KT W OF FRONT ALONG NE OLD MEXICO. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE E PART WITH SEAS NEAR CALM. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND A FEW SHIP OBS CONFIRM ELY TRADES AROUND 20 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS. ONLY A FEW OBS OVER GULF OF HONDURAS AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE RAIN FLAGGING LATEST Q-SCAT PASS...BUT EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER SW GULF OF HONDURAS WITH WAVE PASSING W OF AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 75W SHOULD MOVE W TO ALONG 83W WED AND W OF AREA AROUND MID MORNING THU. ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 57W CONTINUES TO FLARE CONVECTION E OF ITS AXIS. THIS WAVE SHOULD REACH PSN 66W WED...72W THU...79W FRI AND 85W SAT. YET ANOTHER WAVE IN E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE RE-POSITIONED AND BEST GUESS AT FORECAST PSN ARE ALONG 55W JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRI AND INTO E CARIBBEAN SAT AFTERNOON. SW N ATLC... A TROUGH OVER ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS WELL DEFINED THIS MORNING BY LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS ALONG POINTS 31N56W TO 27N63W TO 25N72W. THE ATLC RIDGE E OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD W PUSHING THIS TROUGH W NW BEGINNING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT OVER NE GULF OF MEXICO ATTM WILL MOVE OFF GA COAST TONIGHT REACHING FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W LATE WED. THE TROUGH AND THE FRONT WILL MERGE INTO A BROAD TROUGH DISSECTING THE FORECAST AREA THU ALONG 31N72W TO NW BAHAMAS THU. MODELS SEEM TO HANG ONTO THIS FEATURE SLOWLY DISSIPATING IT WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ELY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT S OF 23N E OF 73W LATE IN PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.