000 AGXX40 KNHC 111748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE IKE REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ABOUT 425 NM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING WITHIN 230 NM NE...240 NM SE...150 NM SW...AND 180 NM QUADRANTS. THE RADII FOR 12 FT SEAS ARE EVEN FARTHER BEYOND THAT. BUOY 42001 IN THE CENTRAL GULF (ABOUT 60 NM WSW OF THE CENTER) REPORTED 30 FT SEAS AN HOUR OR SO AGO AND SEVERAL OTHER BUOYS...AND SOME SHIP REPORTS...ARE REPORTING MORE THAN 20 FT. THIS DATA IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HURRICANE VERSION OF THE NOAA WAVE WATCH MODEL...WHICH SHOWS MAX SEAS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 45-50 FT...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BUILD EVEN MORE AS IKE STRENGTHENS. BOTTOM LINE FOR MARINERS...DON'T VENTURE OFFSHORE UNTIL IKE MOVES WELL INLAND. BASED ON THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...IKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WNW PATH FOR ANOTHER DAY AND THEN POSSIBLY MOVE MORE NW MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE ONCE IKE MOVES INLAND...DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AND 12 FT OVER THE E WATERS FRI NIGHT...MIDDLE WATERS EARLY SUN...AND THE W WATERS LATE SUN. MODELS SHOWS IKE'S TRAILING TROUGH MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT AND SHIFTING E MON. CARIBBEAN... SE TO S 20-30 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SE PERIPHERY OF IKE'S CIRCULATION. WW3 APPEARS TO BE RUNNING A COUPLE FT LOW IN THIS AREA ACCORDING TO BUOY 42056 WHICH IS REPORTING 8 FT SEAS. CONDITIONS HERE ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IKE MOVES FARTHER AWAY. IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AN AREA OF 20 KT TRADES EXIST OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W AND A TROUGH N OF THE ZONE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A TAD AND SHIFT SE AS THE WAVE/TROUGH PUSHES THRU. TROP N ATLC... A WEAK TROUGH IS PRODUCING 20 KT E WINDS N OF 16N. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF THE AREA TONIGHT OR FRI. ONCE W OF THE ZONE...E TO SE WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SW N ATLC... SE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING NEAR THE FLA COAST AS IKE MOVES AWAY...EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 KT LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAIN FEATURE IS A WEAK TROUGH (POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE) MOVING INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE ZONE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT AND GENERALLY WEAKEN. ACCORDINGLY...DECREASED ASSOCIATED ENHANCED WINDS AROUND IT IN THE FORECAST. BY SUN AND MON...WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND A WEAK FRONT CLIPS THE NE PORTION. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 23N W OF 85W...GMZ080...GMZ084. TROPICAL STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE N OF 23N BETWEEN 84W AND 94W...GMZ082...GMZ086 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.