000
AGXX40 KNHC 070752
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
350 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N89W TO 26N97W WITH LIGHT 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...EXPECTED 
TO DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT.  ONLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALTERS THE FLAT PRES PATTERN TO HAVE 15-20 KT WINDS S 
OF 23N ALONG 92W...ALSO EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.  
TROUGH ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG COASTAL WATERS S OF 
20N.

MAIN CONCERN IN GULF OF MEXICO IS ARRIVAL AND TRACK OF HURRICANE 
IKE PRESENTLY JUST N OF HISPANIOLA MOVING W-SW.  IKE EXPECTED TO 
TURN IN A MORE NWLY DIRECTION ACROSS CUBA AND ENTER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO LATE TUE OR EARLY EVENING.  WHILE MOST LIKELY A CATEGORY 
1 HURRICANE UPON EXITING WRN CUBA...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ON WARM GULF WATERS.  REFER TO NHC 
ADVISORIES WITH WMO HEADER WTNT24 / MIATCMAT4 FOR DETAILED TRACK 
...INTENSITY AND WIND RADII INFORMATION.  

SW N ATLC...
N OF 27N...WIND HAS DEFINITELY DIMINISHED WITH DEPARTURE OF 
HANNA...BUT SEA HEIGHTS LINGER HIGHER SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NWW3 
GUIDANCE.  ATLC RIDGE BUILD ALONG 32N WILL KEEP LIGHT TO 
MODERATE SE WIND OVER AREA.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND IMPACT FROM 
HURCN IKE.

S OF 27N...HURCN IKE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA HAS TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WIND SPEED REACHING OVER 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SEA 
HEIGHTS IN THE 40 FT CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY TO SUBSIDE AS 
IKE BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH LAND AREAS AND SHALLOWER SEAS ALONG 
BAHAMA BANK.  HURRICANE VERSION OF NWW3 HAS KEPT GOOD HANDLE ON 
SEAS AND IS MAIN GUIDANCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUN 
NIGHT OVER SRN COAST OF CUBA AS IKE CROSSES ALONG MOUNTAIN CHAIN 
ON W-NW TRACK TOWARDS GULF OF MEXICO.  REFER TO NHC ADVISORIES 
WITH WMO HEADER WTNT24 / MIATCMAT4 FOR DETAILED TRACK... 
INTENSITY AND WIND RADII INFORMATION.  

ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS LIGHTER THAN USUAL AS PRES PATTERN 
FLATTENS WITH CROSSING ALONG GREATER ANTILLES OF HURCN IKE.  
NEVERTHELESS...ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS IN ITS WAKE AFTER TUE AND 
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 57W PRESSES GRADIENT TO PRODUCE STRONG 
TRADES TUE AND WED ALONG COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

WARNINGS...
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY

ATLANTIC...
HURRICANE WARNING S OF 23N E OF 76W...AMZ080

CARIBBEAN...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 19N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W...AMZ082 
AND AMZ086

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.