000 AGXX40 KNHC 041851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH TRAILING FROM THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV PRESENTLY OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG NOTED ALONG...AND WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE TROUGH N OF ABOUT 27N. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLC SW INTO THE NE GULF. NW OF THE TROUGH... WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO N-NE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. THE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF AND INTO THE MIDDLE THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 24N95W BY FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF FRI THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING...THEN BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS AS A WEAK HIGH SETTLES OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE N AND NE OVER THE FAR SE PART MON AND BECOME MORE NLY TUE AROUND 15 KT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HANNA CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH SEAS THROUGHOUT THE GULF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH WILL EXTEND THROUGH TUE. SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE FAR SE PART WHERE THEY WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT BY TUE IN THE NLY FLOW. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM HANNA CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 73.5W 989 MB AT 04/1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 10 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS TO 65 KT. HANNA CONTINUES TO UNDERGO VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO IT CONTINUING TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LOW TO ITS W...AND RESULTANT DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO IT INNER CORE. MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE ZONE WITH 12 FT SEAS EXTENDING OUTWARD WITHIN 325 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE ...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 350 NM NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. NOAA BUOY 41047 IS HAS BEEN REPORTING SE OF 30 KT WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO 16 FT JUST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. EARLIER AROUND 1300 UTC IT REPORTED ENE WINDS OF 35 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 13 FT. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY HAS HANNA MOVING NW TO JUST N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 28.7N 77.2W BY FRI MORNING...THEN TO N OF 31N FRI NIGHT BECOMING A MINIMAL HURRICANE NEAR 31.7N 78.2W BY EARLY FRI NIGHT. 34 KT WIND RADII SHOULD LIFT N OF AREA LATER FRI NIGHT. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND. HANNA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL OVER EASTERN N CAROLINA SAT MORNING. MAJOR HURRICANE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST N OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE NEAR 23.2N 57.0W 938 MB AT 1500 UTC IS MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT GUSTS TO 145 KT. IKE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN SOME AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK WSW TO NEAR FRI MORNING...AND ENTER THE FAR SE PART OF SW N ATLC WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. CURRENTLY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC...BUT SHOULD BE DISCONTINUED EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT MAY NEED TO BE RE-INTRODUCE AGAIN BRIEFLY FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE FAR NW PART OF THAT ZONE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 21Z ADVISORY UPDATE TO MAKE THAT DECISION. IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SE BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING AND MOVE NW TOWARDS THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER SUN THROUGH MON. RIDGE WILL BUILD SW INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE SUN INTO TUE. WILL FOLLOW THE GFDL VERSION OF THE WAVEWATCH MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH RESPECT TO IKE AS IT SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE ASSOCIATED SEA STATE MUCH BETTER THAN THE REGULAR WAVEWATCH. EXPECT 8-12 FT SEAS TO RADIATE OUTWARD A FRAILLY LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THESE SEAS CROSSING TO N OF 31N BEGINNING FRI NIGHT. RIDGE WILL BUILD SW INTO THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. FURTHER E...TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 32.2W AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT JOSEPHINE IS WEAKENING UNDER CONSIDERABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE NHC 1500 UTC ADVISORY FORECASTS JOSEPHINE TO BE NEAR 21.5N 50.0W BY TUE MORNING. JOSEPHINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER ITS ASSOCIATED SWELL MAY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE W TO THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND TUE...BUT WAVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS RATHER LOW SEA STATE AT THIS TIME. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AND IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 1100 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS IN THIS AREA HAVE SUBSIDED SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WINDS LET UP DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS TROPICAL STORM HANNA LIFTS N AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO A QUIET MODE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE TYPICAL ELY TRADES BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR N WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF IKE. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING ASSOCIATED N OF 21N W OF 69W...AMZ080 HURRICANE WARNING N OF 21N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...AMZ087 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. 000 AGXX40 KNHC 041851 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH TRAILING FROM THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV PRESENTLY OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG NOTED ALONG...AND WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE TROUGH N OF ABOUT 27N. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLC SW INTO THE NE GULF. NW OF THE TROUGH... WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO N-NE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. THE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF AND INTO THE MIDDLE THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 24N95W BY FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF FRI THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING...THEN BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS AS A WEAK HIGH SETTLES OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE N AND NE OVER THE FAR SE PART MON AND BECOME MORE NLY TUE AROUND 15 KT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HANNA CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH SEAS THROUGHOUT THE GULF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH WILL EXTEND THROUGH TUE. SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE FAR SE PART WHERE THEY WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT BY TUE IN THE NLY FLOW. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM HANNA CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 73.5W 989 MB AT 04/1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 10 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS TO 65 KT. HANNA CONTINUES TO UNDERGO VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO IT CONTINUING TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LOW TO ITS W...AND RESULTANT DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO IT INNER CORE. MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE ZONE WITH 12 FT SEAS EXTENDING OUTWARD WITHIN 325 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE ...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 350 NM NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. NOAA BUOY 41047 IS HAS BEEN REPORTING SE OF 30 KT WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO 16 FT JUST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. EARLIER AROUND 1300 UTC IT REPORTED ENE WINDS OF 35 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 13 FT. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY HAS HANNA MOVING NW TO JUST N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 28.7N 77.2W BY FRI MORNING...THEN TO N OF 31N FRI NIGHT BECOMING A MINIMAL HURRICANE NEAR 31.7N 78.2W BY EARLY FRI NIGHT. 34 KT WIND RADII SHOULD LIFT N OF AREA LATER FRI NIGHT. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND. HANNA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL OVER EASTERN N CAROLINA SAT MORNING. MAJOR HURRICANE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST N OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE NEAR 23.2N 57.0W 938 MB AT 1500 UTC IS MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT GUSTS TO 145 KT. IKE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN SOME AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK WSW TO NEAR FRI MORNING...AND ENTER THE FAR SE PART OF SW N ATLC WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. CURRENTLY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC...BUT SHOULD BE DISCONTINUED EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT MAY NEED TO BE RE-INTRODUCE AGAIN BRIEFLY FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE FAR NW PART OF THAT ZONE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 21Z ADVISORY UPDATE TO MAKE THAT DECISION. IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SE BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING AND MOVE NW TOWARDS THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER SUN THROUGH MON. RIDGE WILL BUILD SW INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE SUN INTO TUE. WILL FOLLOW THE GFDL VERSION OF THE WAVEWATCH MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH RESPECT TO IKE AS IT SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE ASSOCIATED SEA STATE MUCH BETTER THAN THE REGULAR WAVEWATCH. EXPECT 8-12 FT SEAS TO RADIATE OUTWARD A FRAILLY LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THESE SEAS CROSSING TO N OF 31N BEGINNING FRI NIGHT. RIDGE WILL BUILD SW INTO THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. FURTHER E...TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 32.2W AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT JOSEPHINE IS WEAKENING UNDER CONSIDERABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE NHC 1500 UTC ADVISORY FORECASTS JOSEPHINE TO BE NEAR 21.5N 50.0W BY TUE MORNING. JOSEPHINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER ITS ASSOCIATED SWELL MAY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE W TO THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND TUE...BUT WAVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS RATHER LOW SEA STATE AT THIS TIME. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AND IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 1100 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS IN THIS AREA HAVE SUBSIDED SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WINDS LET UP DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS TROPICAL STORM HANNA LIFTS N AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO A QUIET MODE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE TYPICAL ELY TRADES BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR N WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF IKE. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING ASSOCIATED N OF 21N W OF 69W...AMZ080 HURRICANE WARNING N OF 21N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...AMZ087 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.