000
AGXX40 KNHC 301728
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA NEAR 21.9N 66.4W AT 11 AM AST IS FORECAST 
TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES JUST N OF W THROUGH MON 
MORNING BEFORE TAKING A SLIGHTLY S TURN TOWARD THE STRAITS OF FL 
THROUGH THU MORNING. SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN 
IMPEDED BY THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE NW OF THE SYSTEM CENTERED 
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PAST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN 
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE 12Z GFS NOW 
INTENSIFIES AN UPPER LOW E OF THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND TO THE N 
OF HANNA AND ALLOWS IT TO STEER HANNA TO THE N STARTING WED. 
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AGREES WITH THE NEW GFS ON THE STRENGTH OF 
THIS UPPER LOW...IT STILL ALLOWS HANNA TO STAY ON A MORE W TRACK 
WED ONWARD AS IT HOLDS ONTO MORE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING N OF 
THE SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH WITH THE EXTENDED RANGE 
FORECAST FOR HANNA. INTERESTS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE E 
COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE SYSTEM CLOSELY AND LOOK TO 
THE WTNT23 KNHC OR TCMAT3 FOR OFFICIAL DETAILS ON HANNA.

ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLC...TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 47W WITH 
AN EMBEDDED LOW AT 19N47W AND A STRONGER WAVE ALONG 26W WITH AN 
EMBEDDED LOW AT 14N26W...WILL TRACK WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE WAVE FARTHER W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE MORE E TROPICAL WAVE...THE MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT CARRYING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 17N42W BY MON 
NIGHT AND THEN DIVERGE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE 
STRONGEST AND FARTHEST N SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS AND 00Z UKMET ARE 
WEAKER AND MORE TO THE S...CARRYING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE 
ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NOON EDT COORDINATION BETWEEN 
NHC AND HPC AGREED ON A STRONGER AND MORE N SOLUTION LIKE THE 
ECMWF THROUGH THU.

HURRICANE GUSTAV NEAR 21.2N 82.1W AT 11 AM EDT IS FORECAST TO 
PASS THROUGH W CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ON ITS WAY TOWARD THE LA 
COAST BY LATE MON/EARLY TUE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 100 KT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THE GULF SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR GUSTAV. 
PLEASE SEE THE WTNT22 KNHC OR THE TCMAT2 FOR OFFICIAL DETAILS ON 
GUSTAV.

WARNINGS...
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 20N W OF 64W......AMZ087 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 20N AND 25N E OF 71W...AMZ080

CARIBBEAN...
HURRICANE WARNING N OF 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W...AMZ082

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE WARNING S OF 26N E OF 88W...GMZ084
HURRICANE WARNING S OF 26N W OF 83W...GMZ086

FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.