000 AGXX40 KNHC 240509 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 110 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FAY DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA HEADING FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ALABAMA COAST IN LINE WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS. BUOYS STILL SHOW SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. FAY IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINTAINING GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL THROUGH TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MID WEEK OTHERWISE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE GULF ALONG ROUGHLY 25N. CARIBBEAN... A PERSISTENT 1008 MB LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT TO 12N65W BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FOLLOWING A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 66W. AT ANY RATE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS THE WAVE AND LOW SHIFT WESTWARD. SCATTEROMETER...BUOY AND SOME LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS SHOW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AROUND THE LESSER ANTILLES AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...DUE THE ABSENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND LOW COMPLEX MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS NE OF THE BAHAMAS APPEARS TO BE DAMPENING OUT AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF HISPANIOLA SUGGEST THAT TRADES ARE ALREADY REACHING 20 KT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...AND AS A TROPICAL WAVE GLIDES WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 50W...AND SHIFT NW TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA THROUGH MON. THE RIDGE MEANWHILE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...NORTH OF THE BAND OF FRESH TRADES ACROSS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE TURKS/CAICOS. THESE TRADES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EAST OF THE WINDWARDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES WEST. THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA BREAKS UP THE RIDGE...AND WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS OVER THESE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.