000 AGXX40 KNHC 231753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED JUST INLAND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30.1N 85.6W OR ABOUT 100 MILES ESE OF PENSACOLA AT 1500 UTC THIS MORNING...AND IS MOVING W AT 6 KT...AND IS BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NE GULF THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LIMITED FETCH AREA SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 12 FT (IN THE 8-10 FT) AS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THAT AREA OF THE GULF. FAY IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST NEAR 30.1N 86.8W EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TRACK WNW PASSING TO JUST SW OF THE FAR W FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ACROSS MOBILE BAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER NEAR 30.5N 88.4W BY SUN MORNING. FAY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 30.6N 89.5W BY SUN NIGHT AND TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30.7N 90.5W BY MON MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 31.0N 91.5W BY TUE MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO NW OF THE MIDDLE GULF OVERNIGHT ON SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NE AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THROUGH TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG 26N BEGINNING ON TUE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE TO BE PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... GENERALLY...LIGHT TRADES UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ARE EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND IN A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 1130 UTC THIS MORNING. THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL RAIN-FLAGGED WIND BARBS OF 20-30 KT ATTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA. TWO FEATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE FIRST...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 63W S OF 17N MOVING W 13 KT...AND A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 12N55W MOVING WNW 12 KT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITH BOTH THESE SYSTEMS AS WELL AS ENHANCED NE-E TRADE 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS N OF THESE SYSTEMS TO 19N. THESE WINDS ARE THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL INCREASE TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WAVE TRACKS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INCREASED TRADES OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SEA...AND CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA LATER ON TUE AND THROUGH THU WITH WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEAS TO BE IN THE 1-2 FT THROUGHOUT...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN E SWELL MAY OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE THE LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER THEN FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIFFER GREATLY IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 10N47W TO 16N47W TO 22N49W WITH A 1014 MB LOW AT 19N48W MAY ENHANCE WINDS SOME OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE UNDER THE CONDITION THAT IT DOES NOT WEAKEN. SW N ATLANTIC... THE ACTIVE AREA OF 20 KT SE WINDS IN THE FAR NW PART LEFT IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT PER LATEST BUOY REPORTS. QUIKSCAT DAT FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED MOSTLY SE 15 KT WINDS N OF 28N W OF 77W. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TO 10 KT ON SUN WITH SEAS TO LOWERING TO 3-4 FT. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE SE PART WHERE NE-E TRADES HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE S OF THE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO SPREAD W TO 75W BY TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE SE OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 10N47W TO 16N47W TO 22N49W WITH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 19N48W AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING MAY PROVIDE SOME REINFORCEMENT OF THE ENHANCED WIND AREA OVER THE SE WATERS TUE THROUGH THU...PROVIDING IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS MODELS DIFFER IN FUTURE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. GENERAL INDICATION IS THAT IT MAY BE TO THE ENE OF BAHAMAS WED AND THU. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING WNW 10-15 KT EXTENDS FROM 28N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMS ...HOWEVER WINDS ARE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND MODELS CARRY THESE FEATURE NW AND DIFFUSE IT THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WEAK HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE PART TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE ...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY MORE CLOSELY RELATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW. WARNINGS...SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...GMZ084 AND GMZ086 FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.