000 AGXX40 KNHC 141749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 15Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NW OF AQQ TO NEAR PSX IN TX. MORNING QUIKSCAT AND BUOY DATA SHOW SW 20- TO POSSIBLY 30-KT FLOW WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY W OF ABOUT 90W. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW... SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WIDESPREAD BUT NARROW AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION MOSTLY WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 92W THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AFTER PEAKING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT YESTERDAY EVENING...BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS OVER THE NE GULF SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 5 T0 8 FT SEAS. IN FACT...NOAA BUOY 42039 RECENTLY REPORTED A WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FT WITH A WSW WIND OF 25 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE NEARING THE BASE OF THE E COAST TROUGH...WHICH IS AGAIN CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT. ALREADY ON THE MOVE...THE SFC LOW SHOULD DART NE TO OFFSHORE THE SC COAST BY 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN LIE WELL NE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI MORNING/AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE...EXPECT THE FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW TO DIMINISH BEGINNING AS SOON AS 00Z TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 9 FT IN THE NE GULF SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH THE NOAA WAVEWATCH III SHOWING 2 TO 4 FT SEAS BY LATE FRI. ELSEWHERE...RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO ABOUT 25N94W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATING SE TO S 10 TO 15 KT WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT N OF THE AXIS TO ABOUT 27N. QUIKSCAT DATA DID SHOW SE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL...SPOTTY 20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. LONGER-TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 25N LIFTING N THIS WEEKEND...WITH MAIN SFC RIDGE LYING OVER THE NE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN...MARINERS CAN EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CLOSE TO THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL WATERS...WITH A CURRENT OF MODERATE E TO SE FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE SW GULF. MODELS DO INDICATE SE TO S WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE W GULF LIKELY TO REACH 20 KT MON AND TUE NEXT WEEK...ESP IN FAVORED AREAS /W OF 95W AND N OF 25N/. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE NE TO 3 TO 6 FT OVER THE SW AND NW WATERS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 18N62W IS MOVING WNW 10 TO 15 KT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. QUIKSCAT DATA AROUND 12Z INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT E TO SE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE NE QUADRANT...WHILE NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WERE NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NW QUADRANT. THE SAME PASS REVEALED LIGHT S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT S OF THE LOW...WITH SOME ISOLATED S WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE SFC LOW. SINCE YESTERDAY...THE FETCH AREA HAS INCREASED NOT TO MENTION THE WINDS. AS A RESULT...PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ESTIMATED AROUND 12 TO 13 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT AND UP TO 10 OR 11 FT TO THE NW. MODEL GUIDANCE STEERS THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK THROUGH THE NW PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE CENTER PASSING W OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI. STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIE OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE...ON A TRACK N OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AS THE CENTER PASSES TO THE N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. NOAA BUOY 41043...LOCATED ABOUT 160 NM NNE OF PUERTO RICO...IS REPORTING 15 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 7 FT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY RELAXING FRI. ELSEWHERE...NE TO E WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT SHOULD PERSIST FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W THROUGH AT LEAST SAT....WITH THE AREA OF SHRINKING IN SIZE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD LIE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. TO THE E...E TO SE WINDS OF 20 KT S OF 20N W OF 85W SHOULD ALSO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT E OF 70W TO 2 TO 4 FT W OF 70W. SW N ATLC... BUOY...C-MAN...AND MORNING QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALED A BROAD AREA OF SW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC. STRONGEST WINDS WERE GENERALLY WITHIN 300 NM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE FAR NW WATERS. AT THAT TIME...WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 10 FT WERE ESTIMATED OVER THIS AREA. MORE RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SW FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA E OF 77W. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND PROGGED TO TO SHOOT RAPIDLY NE...SW TO W WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE N OF 28N W OF 77W TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THE NEXT FEW DAYS THOUGH SHOULD BE THE ENTRANCE OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE SE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 61W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP FURTHER...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT HEADS ON A MOSTLY WNW TRACK AT 10 TO 15 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...INCREASING NE TO E WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE FAR SE WATERS...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND 7 TO 11 FT SEAS PREDICTED OVER THIS AREA. MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...AND INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFSHORES FORECAST WILL PERSIST UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS MOVING FROM THE SE TO THE S CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.