000 AGXX40 KNHC 110548 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST WITH LATEST QSCAT DATA SHOWING SOME EVIDENCE OF AN EMBEDDED HIGH CENTER NEAR 24N87W. AS ADVERTISED...SLY RETURN FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR W WATERS DUE TO LOW PRES TAKING SHAPE OVER TEXAS...BUILDING SEAS TO 6 FT AT BUOY 42020 NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING E AND STRENGTHENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE 15-20 KT S TO SW WINDS TO SPREAD E AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 90W BY MON NIGHT AND THE N PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND EAST ZONES TUE AND WED. BY LATE WED...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS/WW3 ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THE FORECAST...WHICH AS USUAL IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFS. SW N ATLC... THE UNUSUAL EARLY AUGUST FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED OVER THE NW WATERS. HOWEVER...PRES GRADIENT STILL SUPPORTS 15-20 KT SW WINDS N OF 27N E OF 73W AND AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE SAME AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONE IS EXPERIENCING MAINLY 10-15 KT WINDS...E TO SE S OF 24N AND S TO SW ELSEWHERE. THE 15-20 KT SW WINDS WILL SHIFT E AND DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRES OVER THE N ATLC RACES NE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON WED. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT OVER THE NW WATERS LATE TUE AND THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE ZONE WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE SE WATERS THU AND FRI CARIBBEAN... TRADES REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND GENERALLY 15-20 KT NE TO E WINDS ELSEWHERE. HIGHEST SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR 9 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE SW WATERS S OF 14N W OF 78W FUELED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS AN ORGANIZING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 46W WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH ON BOARD IN DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND TRACKING IT WNW INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU. THESE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR AND N OF THE LOW CENTER BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN THE TROP N ATLC ZONE. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP MAY NEED TO INCREASE. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT WITH THE WAVE TO ITS E AND THIS MAY APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.