000
AGXX40 KNHC 020543
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE 
TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SUN 
THROUGH TUE.  THE NAM APPEARS OVERDONE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS SYSTEM AND HAD LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER OPERATIONAL 
MODELS OR THE GEFS ENSEMBLES.  IN FACT...NONE OF THE GEFS 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A SURFACE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WATERS.  
THIS SOLUTION DEPARTS FROM THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS IN 
FAVOR OF A WEAK SCENARIO LIKE THE UKMET OR A SOLUTION THAT DOES 
NOT CARRY A LOW AT ALL LIKE THE ECMWF.  CONSIDERING THE BULK OF 
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CARRY SOME SORT OF SURFACE WAVE IN THE 
GULF...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UKMET WHICH LOOKS LIKE A WEAKER 
VERSION OF THE GFS.

IN THE ATLANTIC...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 
STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE PUSHING W ALONG 30N-25N TO 
SOMEWHERE NEAR 28N52W BY WED NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN 
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 
CURRENTLY NEAR 40W PASSING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN EDGE INTO THE 
LESSER ANTILLES MON NIGHT/TUE.  THE NAM IS THE LONE STRONG 
OUTLIER THAN ATTEMPTS TO PINCH OFF A CLOSED CIRCULATION N OF 
PUERTO RICO TUE NIGHT.  SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GFS SOLN 
HERE.  

IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO HOLD 
RELATIVELY STEADY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW E TRADE WIND FLOW TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE 
PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 75W AS IT TREKS INTO 
THE W CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO 
MON.  ALSO MON...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 40W SHOULD 
BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.  

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE. 

.FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.