000 AGXX40 KNHC 300557 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 157 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...SW N ATLC... TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST ALONG 64W AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TOWARDS THE CNTRL ATLC WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DVLPG N OF 30N OVER THE W ATLC. SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO THE FL KEYS AND HAS SHARPENED WITH MORE PRONOUNCED SW/WLY FLOW...ALBEIT LIGHT...DVLPG N OF 26N. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STNRY WITH SW/W FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND REACHING 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BY THU NIGHT. W ATLC BUOYS ARE INDICATING 8-10 SEC E/ESE SWELLS NE OF THE BAHAMAS...MATCHING WELL WITH WW3 GUIDANCE. THE SWELLS WILL APPROACH FLORIDA AND GRADUALLY DECAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. OVER THE SRN WATERS...TRPCL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 52W/53W WILL CROSS 65W NEAR PUERTO RICO LATE THU WITH E WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT S OF 22N E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS THU NIGHT. WW3 APPEARS REASONABLE IN BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT N OF PUERTO RICO THU NIGHT. FRI THROUGH SUN...RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 26N WITH SW/W FLOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN N OF 29N AND SPREADING E TO 65W ON FRI. STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NE WATERS SAT THEN DIMINISH LATE. RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES N TO 27N SUN. OVER THE SRN WATERS...N END OF TRPCL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW E WINDS 15-20 KT S OF 23N E OF 75W ON FRI THEN DIMINISHING SAT AND SUN. ...CARIBBEAN... TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT...STRONG TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH AN EVENING QSCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS TO 25 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH ON THU AS A TRPCL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND RELAXES THE GRADIENT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 52W/53W AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS TODAY. THE CIRCULATION IS QUITE BROAD AND 15-20 KT NE WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED N OF 16N E OF 62W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. STRONGEST WINDS STAY N OF 16N AND SPREAD W AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU/THU NIGHT. FRI THROUGH SUN...THE TRPCL WAVE WEAKENS ONCE IT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH WINDS OVER THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN REMAIN 15-20 KT THROUGH SAT. WAVE MOVES TO THE W CARIBBEAN BY SUN WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ITS WAKE...AND ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENING THE TRADES OFF COLOMBIA TO 25 KT. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH TRPCL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19W HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BUT WOULD ONLY REACH NEAR 52W BY SUN. THIS FEATURE COULD AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY LATE SUN...BUT CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION AND INTENSITY IS QUITE LOW AT THE MOMENT SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE HIGHER WINDS YET. ...GULF OF MEXICO... TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT...SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FL KEYS NW TO THE COAST OF TX BUT WINDS HAVE INCREASES SLIGHTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT. EVENING QSCAT SHOWED PRIMARILY 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHTER PATCHES NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 20 KT OVER THE SW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THE DIMINISH BY EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT OVER THE SW GULF AND 3-4 FT OVER THE NW GULF...WITH LOWER SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUING FARTHER E. INCREASED SWLY FLOW OVER THE NE GULF COULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 FT AS WELL. FRI THROUGH SUN...A HIGH PRES CELL BEGINS TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE W COAST OF FL ON FRI THEN MIGRATE TO THE N/CNTRL GULF SAT AND NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST ON SUN. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM REACHING 20 KT OVER THE SW GULF AT NIGHT AND WILL CAUSE WINDS OVER THE NRN GULF TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.