000 AGXX40 KNHC 240523 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DOLLY MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO OVER EXTREME S TEXAS AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE. AS OF 24/03Z...DOLLY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER INLAND WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED WITHIN 2 DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING OVER THE W GULF...BUT STILL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-28N W OF 96W. CONVECTIVE OUTER BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 94W. BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING SEAS UP TO 14 FT AND MAX VALUES ARE LIKELY HIGHER THAN THAT IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND BETWEEN THE BUOY OBS. FOR THE W GULF...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 20-25 KT LATER TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT. BY FRI...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO 10-15 KT...EXCEPT 15-20 KT S OF 22N. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MON IN THE MIDDLE AND EAST ZONES N OF 25N AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E S OF 25N AS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... TRADES ARE FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THOUGH LIKELY A NOTCH LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...AROUND 20-25 KT. E WINDS NEAR 20 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND GENERALLY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. WW3 SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON COMPARED TO THE CARIB BUOYS...SUGGESTING MAX HEIGHTS NEAR 10 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA BY THU NIGHT AND A WAVE ALONG 60W WILL TRACK W THROUGH THE ZONES ABOUT 15 KT. NEITHER OF THESE WAVES ARE PRODUCING MUCH CONVECTION OR CONTRIBUTING SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SFC WINDS. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PRES PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR BETWEEN STRONG ATLC RIDGING AND LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER COLOMBIA. BY MON AND TUE...A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT (AT LEAST ON THE S PART OF THE WAVE). SW N ATLC... SFC RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING SE TO S WINDS N OF 25N AND E TO SE WINDS S OF 25N. WINDS ARE STRONGEST...15-20 KT...OVER THE NE PORTION DUE TO SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE ZONE. WINDS WILL LIKELY LIGHTEN TO 10-15 KT OR LESS AREA-WIDE BY THU NIGHT AND BASICALLY CHANGE LITTLE IN DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE THROUGH SAT. BY SUN AND MON...SLY WINDS DEVELOP EVERYWHERE AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND RETREATS E. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM FROM 25N TO 28N W OF 96W...GMZ080. .FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.