000 AGXX40 KNHC 180621 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W IS MOVING WEST AT 20 KT WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N68W. THE WAVE/LOW COMPLEX HAS HELD TOGETHER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. UPPER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AS THE WAVE/LOW COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH OF CUBA. REPORTS FROM BUOY 42059 ARE CONSISTENT WITH ASCAT AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 13N. THE BUOY IS ALSO REPORTING 10 FT SEAS WITH PEAK WINDS REACHING ABOVE 25 KT ALREADY. STRONGER GUSTS IN HEAVY SQUALLS ARE LIKELY NEAR THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE/LOW COMPLEX WILL SHIFT WEST REACHING 76W TONIGHT...AND HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EAST OF THE WAVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 46W WILL MOVE WEST THROUGH THE WATERS N OF GUYANA E OF THE ANTILLES...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT NIGHT. OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NICARAGUAN COAST...WITH A BROAD 1010 MB LOW NOTED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS. BUOY 42057 REPORTED PEAK WINDS TO 35 KT AROUND 03Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS OVER LAND. THE BAND OF STRONG E WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST ALONG WITH THE LOW...ENTERING THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY. STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DEVELOP AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC W OF 55W...SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF JACKSONVILLE CURRENTLY MOVING NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW THROUGH TODAY. FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA EVEN IF IT DEEPENS A LITTLE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA REMAINS WELL NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BERTHA TO SOUTH OF BERMUDA. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41048 W OF BERMUDA ARE CONSISTENT WITH ASCAT DATA SHOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH THE HIGH PRES. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS BERTHA AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFT OUT. FRESH E WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND TROPICAL WAVE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND THE HIGH PRES. GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT PRES PATTERN CONTINUES WITH 1017 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF...AND A TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE GULF. NOT ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT TO PRODUCE ANYTHING BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY. CHANGE UP WILL COME WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PUSHING INTO THE YUCATAN LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO SAT. A SECOND WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW E WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WHOLE SOUTHERN GULF GENERALLY S OF 25N THIS WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ROUGHLY 30N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.