000 AGXX40 KNHC 161742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ALL EYES ARE ON A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 57W WITH A 1009 MB SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N57W. BUOY 41101 NEAR 14.5N56W RECENTLY REPORTED E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 10 FT SEAS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM VERY SHORTLY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. DEPENDING ON THE FINDINGS OF THE AIRCRAFT...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN FORECAST WATERS. IN ANY EVENT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W EARLY THU AND ALONG 71W EARLY FRI AND 77W EARLY SAT AND THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASED WINDS...SEAS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH IT. ANOTHER WAVE...FURTHER W ALONG 76W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BY LATE THU/EARLY FRI. BUOY 42058 REPORTED ENE WINDS OF 33 KT AT 14 UTC IN STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE ESE AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TO THE WEST OF THE SITE. THIS WAVE IS ALSO PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TO 20-25 KT AND 8-11 FT IN ITS WAKE. SW N ATLC... A 1023 MB HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 28N60W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A 1116 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN THE BAHAMA BANK S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...CURRENTLY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36.6N 60.7W...IS STILL EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHEASTWARD ON THU AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRI. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS TO WATERS GENERALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W THU INTO FRI. GFDL WAVEWATCH IS ALSO SHOWING LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL UP TO 8 FT PUSHING INTO THE WATERS SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON THE BACKSIDE OF BERTHA INTO EARLY FRI. AS BERTHA MAKES ITS TURN TO THE SE AND THEN NE...THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND BAHAMAS...THEN BUILD WEST THROUGH SAT. RIDGE LIES ALONG 28N/29N ON SUN THEN LIFTS NWD ON MON WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL SEAS. A 1016 MB LOW PRES HAS MOVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LEAVING A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N92W. MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE WITH REGARD TO THE WEAK LOW AND NOW KEEP IT INLAND OVER N FLORIDA OR MOVE IT NORTHEAST...CLIPPING THE SW N ATLC ZONE BY FRI. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 25N THROUGH FRI. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LOW PRESS MOVES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SAT WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SAT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WWD...INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF S OF 25N SUN AND MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.