000 AGXX40 KNHC 141721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SAT AS IT MEANDERS E OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N42W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...EATING INTO THE RIDGING E OF BERTHA AND CARRYING IT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF E ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ON THU. FRI...LOOK FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A MID LATITUDE TROUGH...POTENTIALLY LEAVING BERTHA BEHIND OVER THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LIES ALONG 25N...PASSING S OF BERTHA...TO THE MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO SW ACROSS FL. THIS RIDGE SHOULD LIFT N THROUGH THE W ATLC THROUGH THU...LIFTING THE TROUGHING OVER FL N. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGING IN THE E PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SINK SOUTHWARD AS BERTHA TAKES HER SOUTHERN DIP. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N ALONG 42W AND AN ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. BY THU...EXPECT A WEAK UPPER LOW TO PINCH OFF FROM THIS TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO TRACK WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE ISLANDS FRI AND SAT. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGHING/LOW SHOULD HELP SUPPORT CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH WED. PLEASE SEE THE TWOAT FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. IN THE CARIBBEAN...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS S OF BERTHA AND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 18N ALONG 64W IS MOVING W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AT 15 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE E COAST OF HONDURAS BY FRI MORNING. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW AND SEAS UNDER 3 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE E GULF IS DISPLACED N BY THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE REGION THRU THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ON FRI SHOULD BRING WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.