000 AGXX40 KNHC 121653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... HURRICANE BERTHA IS LOCATED ABOUT 180 NM SE OF BERMUDA...AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0940Z SHOWED THE WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE BERTHA REMAINING N OF 60W AND WEST OF 65W. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WEST OF BERTHA NEAR 28N72W. THIS IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. AREA BUOYS SHOW LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NE OF THE BAHAMAS...ALTHOUGH SWELL HEIGHTS REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATES. TRENDS IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS MAY ALLOW SW WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY N OF THE BAHAMAS BY MIDWEEK. FURTHER SOUTH...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE TURKS/CAICOS BY MID WEEK AS A WELL DEVELOPED TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS IS BEING DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY HURRICANE BERTHA...JUST AS A TROPICAL WAVE TRANSITS WEST THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 75W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN...AS EVIDENCED BY QUIKSCAT DATA AND BUOY 42058 SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AREA...WITH SEAS ESTIMATED AS HIGH AS 10 FT. THE SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THESE EAST TRADES IS AIDING CONVECTION FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE...A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED NEAR 49W...MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS WAVE...AIDING CONVERGENCE SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY...BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...AND MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF. SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST WINDS...TO MAYBE 15 KT PERIODICALLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR NE GULF TONIGHT...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE. A SECOND MINOR PUSH IS EXPECTED BY TUE THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES. THIS MAY INCREASE NW WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NE GULF...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.