000 AGXX40 KNHC 080710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ALONG THE FAR NRN GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE NRN FRINGE A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 83W S OF 26N. NCEP GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE NAM REGIONAL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SAT MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ON THE WIND REGIME OVER THE GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING W ABOUT 20 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON LATER TONIGHT AND WED. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0014 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED A SWATH OF SE STEADY 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WITH SEVERAL RAIN-FLAGGED VECTORS IN THE 20-25 KT FROM 21N-24N W OF 93W. BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF LOCATED AT 22N94W HAS BEEN REPORTING SE 20 KT WINDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH A BRIEF GUST TO 25 KT. SEAS BEING REPORTED BY THIS BUOY ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ON FRI AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO WEAKENS SOME. SEAS THERE WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH FRI TO ABOUT 3-5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE LIGHT...E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT OVER THE REST OF THE WRN GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THESE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH SAT...WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THOSE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2230 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA BETWEEN 69W-78W WITH A COUPLE 30 KT WIND VECTORS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR 15N75W IS CURRENTLY AND HAS BEEN REPORTING NE 25 KT WINDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SEAS 7-9 FT. BASED ON THIS WILL MENTION WINDS UP TO 30 KT FOR NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND KEEP MENTION OF NE 20-25 KT THROUGH SAT FOR REMAINDER OF SW CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 67W AND ALSO N OF 15N E OF 67W AS BUOY 42059 AT 15N67.5W IS REPORTING NE 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY N-E 15 KT...EXCEPT FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 4-7 FT IN NE SWELLS E OF ABOUT 75W ATTRIBUTED TO HURRICANE BERTHA WELL IN THE ATLC...ABOUT 695 MILES...1115 KM ENE OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE NE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT UP TO 8 FT THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLAND PASSAGES THROUGH WED. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD S AND SW INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DECAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COME DOWN SOME WED THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE THU THROUGH SAT WITH 30 KT WINDS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WILL ADJUST WINDS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS FOR FAR SW WATERS OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN (ZONE 086) FOR SAT. TROPICAL ATLC... THE SAME QUIKSCAT MENTIONED UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ON THE E EDGE OF SWATH FROM 20N TO 27N E OF 57W. THIS WINDS ARE DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOTED WITHIN 330 NM TO THE W OF HURRICANE BERTHA LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM NE OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 20.8N52.8W AT 08/0300 UTC. LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BERTHA JUST STAYING FURTHER TO THE NE OF THE ZONE THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTER. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELLS OF 8-13 FT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NRN SECTION OF THESE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE SE PORTION OF THESE WATERS ON THU WED BY AN INCREASE IN TRADES TO 20-25 KT PRIMARILY S OF 15N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THAT SECTION OF THE ZONE. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 30N TODAY THROUGH TUE...THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR 29N WED AND TO 28N THU AND FRI...THEN BECOME ORIENTED FROM 31N69W TO S FL ON SAT. FRESH EASTERLY 15-20 TRADES WILL CONTINUE S OF 25N THROUGH EARLY WED THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. HURRICANE BERTHA IS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN E OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE THROUGH SAT. IT CIRCULATION WILL STILL IMPACT THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THIS ZONE N OF 25N AND E OF 70W THU THROUGH SAT ALLOWING FOR WINDS THERE TO BACK AROUND IN DIRECTION FROM NE-E TO ON FRI TO NW-N ON AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WHETHER THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONGER OR EVEN LESS BASED ON WHETHER BERTHA TAKES AN EVEN MORE NE TRACK FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ZONE. EXPECT LONG-PERIOD NE TO E SWELLS OF UP 8 FT AND MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO TRANSVERSE INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE ZONE S OF THE 20-25 KT WINDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SLY ELSEWHERE OVER FAR SE PART ON FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SW N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH SAT. OUTSIDE ANY SWELL THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SEAS WILL RANGE ABOUT 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT W OF BAHAMAS AND OVER THE NW PART N OF THE RIDGE THU THROUGH SAT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT N OF THE RIDGE FRI AND SAT. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 20N E OF 57W...AMZ087 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.