000 AGXX40 KNHC 071604 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1210 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E TO W RIDGE FROM THE ATLC EXTENDS W ALONG 30.5N TO E TEXAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THIS AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT BACK S WITH HIGH PRES STALLING NEAR 28N84W LATE THU THROUGH SAT. A BAND OF SE WINDS AT MOSTLY 20 KT CONTINUE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO JUST SE OF BRO TEXAS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 22 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE OVER OLD MEXICO BY SUNSET TODAY. INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF ATTM AS FORECAST...EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS WAVE MOVES W OF AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 80W IS ENHANCING TSTMS OVER THE CAY SAL BANK ATTM. THIS WAVE ALSO MOVING W 20-22KT PAST 24 HOURS...SO EXPECT A NE-SE WIND SHIFT TO RACE THROUGH THE FL STRAITS EARLY TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN STRAITS LATER TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W ATTM ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN BASIN AS IT MOVES W AT 20-22 KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SW WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE GRADIENT W OF WAVE IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS. GRADIENT E OF WAVE HAS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT TUE AND WED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS AS HURCN BERTHA MAKES A NORTHWARD TURN NEAR 25N62W. SOME NE SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL MAKE IT INTO EXPOSED NE ATLC PASSAGES TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN WED NIGHT AS CYCLONE MOVES OUT TO N. MODELS SUGGESTING TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI. WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC MOVING W AT BETTER THAN 20 KT AND EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN AROUND SUNRISE THU AND ALONG 77W SUNRISE SAT...I EXPECT THE FRESH TO STRONG E TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. TROPICAL ATLC...NE WINDS 20 KT OVER WATERS N OF 16N WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20-33 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH TS CONDITIONS ARRIVING FAR NE CORNER AT SUNSET TODAY AND HURCN CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST OF MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS HAS BEEN TRICKY PAST FEW DAYS BUT WITH THE RECENT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND INTENSIFICATION...WILL NOW BUILD SEAS TO MAX OF 32-33 FT OVER THE NE QUAD. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF ADVECTING 8 SECOND LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 7 FT SW TO THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES BY SUNSET TODAY...INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 FT AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING. HURCN CONDS LIFT N OF AREA TUE NIGHT AND TS CONDS LIFT N OF AREA BY NOON WED WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY OVER THE WATERS N OF 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE TO ALONG 55W SUNRISE WED AND MOVE W OF AREA EARLY THU WITH E TRADES 15-20 KT S OF 17N THROUGH SAT. SW ATLC...A RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO SE GEORGIA WILL SHIFT S TO NE FLORIDA THU THROUGH SAT. EASTERLY 15-20 KT TRADES WILL CONTINUE S OF 24N TILL WED THEN DIMINISH SOME AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. HURRICANE BERTHA EXPECTED TO MAKE A NORTHWARD TURN NEAR 25N62W AROUND SUNRISE THU. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT 72-120 HOURS OUT... BUT NOW BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE ONLY TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND W INTO THE EXTREME E WATERS N OF 27N E OF 66W THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES I PLAN TO CHANGE HEADING OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TROPICAL STORM CONDS IN THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE. LONG PERIOD E SWELL OF 8-11 SECONDS WILL SPREAD W TO ALONG 65W TUE NIGHT ARRIVING SE BAHAMAS SUNSET WED AND NEAR NW BAHAMAS MIDDAY THU...AND FINALLY TO SE COAST CONUS THU NIGHT. ATLANTIC... AMZ087...HURCN WARNING N OF 19N E OF 60W THROUGH WED MORNING. AMZ080...TS CONDS EXPECTED N OF 27N E OF 66W THU AFT-SAT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.