000 AGXX40 KNHC 180628 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK NNE-SSW TROUGH FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NE OVER THE STRAITS OF FL ONLY DETECTED IN 1 MB ANALYSIS. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES HIGH PRES 1015 MB OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM AN ATLC RIDGE THAT POKES INTO STRAITS OF FL TO A SHARP CREST AT 23N82W. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING NE ACROSS CUBA PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO ALLOW A CONTINUES FLARE OF TSTMS ALONG THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS S FL INTO THE BAHAMA CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND THE SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT LYING E-W ALONG THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS. MY INTERPRETATION AGAIN IS THAT THE GULF HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE INTERMITTENTLY AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS WNW FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE TX COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DIP SE INTO THE NE WATERS STALLING BRIEFLY FROM 28N82W TO 30N90W TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SE RETURN FLOW WILL MAX AT 15 KT...WITH MAX SEAS 3-4 FT...ALONG A BAND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE TX COAST. MODELS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT AND THESE WINDS MAY ONLY BE AROUND 10 KT. OTHERWISE WINDS IN 5-10 KT RANGE OVER GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...ELY TRADES ARE AT 20-25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS W OF 80W AND E OF 72W. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG 56W HAS MOVED W AT 15 KT PAST 24 HOURS BUT IS NOT VERY CONVECTIVE OVER WATER ATTM. THE WAVE POSITION IS IN LINE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAK ALREADY REPORTED IN THE WINDWARD OBS. I WILL MOVE WAVE AXIS TO 64W THU...71W FRI...77W SAT AND 83W SUN. THE NEXT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 40W SEEMS TO HAVE SPUN OFF A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL NEAR 12N42W AND IT IS MOVING NW WITH TIME ATTRACTING MEDIA ATTENTION BUT MODELS HAVE NOT NOTICED IT AS YET. THE ACTUAL WAVE IS NOW KICKING OFF CONVECTION NEAR 07N43W. I WILL MOVE THE WAVE W AT 18 KT PER PAST HISTORY TO ALONG 55W SUNRISE FRI...INTO E CARIBBEAN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SAT...AND TO ALONG 78W SUNRISE MON ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCING E 20-25 KT TRADE OVER WATERS S OF ABOUT 17N. SW ATLC...AN E TO W RIDGE LIES ALONG 23-24N AS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD IS MOVING ACROSS SE GA ATTM AND EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY REACHING FROM 31N70W TO 28N80W AT SUNRISE FRI AS THE W PORTION BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS NE FL. THE W PORTION OF FRONT WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE FRI ALLOWING A WESTERN ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD SW TO NE FL. THE E PORTION OF THE FRONT CONTINUES E REACHING NEAR BERMUDA SAT WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO MAX OF 9 FT ALONG 31N. FURTHER S... I AM EXPECTING SOME REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL SPIN OFF FROM A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE NW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS REACHING THE SE BAHAMAS SAT. THIS IS BARELY EVIDENT IN THE CURRENT MOISTURE GUIDANCE BUT THE CURRENT MID LEVEL FEATURE NEAR 12N43W IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND EXPECT IT TO HAVE SOME EFFECT ON FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.